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This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.
Available online: https://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:1456194 In 2020, the long-term crisis of climate change has been temporarily overshadowed by the COVID-19 emergency, pushing many governments into deep budget deficits. As countries mobilize funds to fight the pandemic and bolster their economies, it cannot be ignored that whatever measures are put in place to recover from the current crisis must not undermine efforts to tackle the longer term threat of climate change. Article 2.1.c of the Paris Agreement on climate change: “making finance flows consistent with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development”, applies just as much now as before. This working paper explores how two fiscal tools, fossil fuel subsidies (FFS) and carbon pricing — putting a price on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through taxation or carbon markets, influence the signal sent to the market to align economic development with climate constraints. Fossil fuel subsidies act as a negative price on carbon and increase the risk of locking investment in fossil fuels that are incompatible with the low-carbon transition required to meet the Paris Agreement’s objectives. As we document in the report, the current coverage and levels of carbon pricing are also deeply insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement limiting the increase of the global average temperature to “well below 2°C” while “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C. This Working Paper explores the interplay between FFS reform and carbon pricing at the international and national levels. We note that effective carbon pricing, promoted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, is a valuable tool to send effective carbon mitigation signals to the market. However, without including the impact of fossil fuel subsidies, these analyses present only a partial picture. These findings highlight the importance of increasing implicit and explicit carbon prices and reforming fossil fuel subsidies. In the context of the COVID-19 emergency, it is essential that governments, in a hurry to take action to boost their economies, don’t overlook the need to keep recovery stimulus policies aligned with climate goals.
This comprehensive volume provides the first book-length account on the politics of fossil fuel subsidies. This title is also available as Open Access.
This much-needed book provides an empirically-grounded, and theoretically informed account of international law sources, mechanisms, initiatives and institutions which address and affect the practice of subsidising fossil fuel consumption and production. Drawing on recent scholarship on emerging international governance mechanisms, ‘informal’ international law-making and regime interaction, it offers suggestions, and critiques suggestions of others, for how the international law framework could be employed more effectively and appropriately to respond to environmentally and fiscally harmful fossil fuel subsidies.
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.