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The main objective of this study is to develop a predictive model based on the correlation between well-known climate indices and fish production, to forecast fluctuations in the main commercial Atlantic and Pacific fish stocks for up to 30 years ahead. The probable scenario of climate and biota changes for the next 50-60 years is also considered.
Topics: 1) Physical and biological factors affecting ocean production of Pacific salmon; 2) Detection of trends, patterns, and changes in historical salmon and environmental data; 3) Forecasts and models of Pacific salmon dynamics; 4) New research methods and techniques in ocean salmon research.
The document provides a background to the need for managing fishing capacity and a review of technical and policy issues that arise in doing so. A summary of recommendations is included.
An overview of the current scientific knowledge available on climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture is provided through three technical papers that were presented and discussed during the Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome, 7-9 April 2008). A summary of the workshop outcomes as well as key messages on impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and on fisheries- and aquaculture-based livelihoods are provided in the introduction of this Technical Paper. The first paper reviews the physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture. The paper begins with a review of the physical impacts of climate change on marine and freshwater systems and then connects these changes with observed effects on fish production processes. It also outlines a series of scenarios of climate change impacts on fish production and ecosystems through case studies in different regions and ecosystems. The second paper tackles the consequences of climate change impacts on fisheries and their dependent communities. It analyses the exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability of fisheries to climate change and presents examples of adaptive mechanisms currently used in the sector. The contribution of fisheries to greenhouse gas emissions is addressed and examples of mitigation strategies are given. The role of public policy and institutions in promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation is also explored. Finally, the third paper addresses the impacts of climate change on aquaculture. It provides an overview of the current food fish and aquaculture production and a synthesis of existing studies on climate change effects on aquaculture and fisheries. The paper focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on aquaculture, in terms of biodiversity, fish disease and fishmeal. Contribution of aquaculture to climate change is addressed (carbon emission and carbon sequestration), as well as possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be implemented.
This report indicates that climate change will significantly affect the availability and trade of fish products, especially for those countries most dependent on the sector, and calls for effective adaptation and mitigation actions encompassing food production.
The importance of salmon to the Pacific Northwestâ€"economic, recreational, symbolicâ€"is enormous. Generations ago, salmon were abundant from central California through Idaho, Oregon, and Washington to British Columbia and Alaska. Now they have disappeared from about 40 percent of their historical range. The decline in salmon numbers has been lamented for at least 100 years, but the issue has become more widespread and acute recently. The Endangered Species Act has been invoked, federal laws have been passed, and lawsuits have been filed. More than $1 billion has been spent to improve salmon runsâ€"and still the populations decline. In this new volume a committee with diverse expertise explores the complications and conflicts surrounding the salmon problemâ€"starting with available data on the status of salmon populations and an illustrative case study from Washington state's Willapa Bay. The book offers specific recommendations for salmon rehabilitation that take into account the key role played by genetic variability in salmon survival and the urgent need for habitat protection and management of fishing. The committee presents a comprehensive discussion of the salmon problem, with a wealth of informative graphs and charts and the right amount of historical perspective to clarify today's issues, including: Salmon biology and geographyâ€"their life's journey from fresh waters to the sea and back again to spawn, and their interaction with ecosystems along the way. The impacts of human activitiesâ€"grazing, damming, timber, agriculture, and population and economic growth. Included is a case study of Washington state's Elwha River dam removal project. Values, attitudes, and the conflicting desires for short-term economic gain and long-term environmental health. The committee traces the roots of the salmon problem to the extractive philosophy characterizing management of land and water in the West. The impact of hatcheries, which were introduced to build fish stocks but which have actually harmed the genetic variability that wild stocks need to survive. This book offers something for everyone with an interest in the salmon issueâ€"policymakers and regulators in the United States and Canada; environmental scientists; environmental advocates; natural resource managers; commercial, tribal, and recreational fishers; and concerned residents of the Pacific Northwest.