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Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.
In An Engine, Not a Camera, Donald MacKenzie argues that the emergence of modern economic theories of finance affected financial markets in fundamental ways. These new, Nobel Prize-winning theories, based on elegant mathematical models of markets, were not simply external analyses but intrinsic parts of economic processes. Paraphrasing Milton Friedman, MacKenzie says that economic models are an engine of inquiry rather than a camera to reproduce empirical facts. More than that, the emergence of an authoritative theory of financial markets altered those markets fundamentally. For example, in 1970, there was almost no trading in financial derivatives such as "futures." By June of 2004, derivatives contracts totaling $273 trillion were outstanding worldwide. MacKenzie suggests that this growth could never have happened without the development of theories that gave derivatives legitimacy and explained their complexities. MacKenzie examines the role played by finance theory in the two most serious crises to hit the world's financial markets in recent years: the stock market crash of 1987 and the market turmoil that engulfed the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. He also looks at finance theory that is somewhat beyond the mainstream—chaos theorist Benoit Mandelbrot's model of "wild" randomness. MacKenzie's pioneering work in the social studies of finance will interest anyone who wants to understand how America's financial markets have grown into their current form.
The positive benefits of physical activity for physical and mental health are now widely acknowledged, yet levels of physical inactivity continue to be a major concern throughout the world. Understanding the psychology of physical activity has therefore become an important issue for scientists, health professionals and policy-makers alike as they address the challenge of behaviour change. Psychology of Physical Activity provides comprehensive and in-depth coverage of the fundamentals of exercise psychology, from mental health, to theories of motivation and adherence, and to the design of successful interventions for increasing participation. Now publishing in a fully revised, updated and expanded fourth edition, Psychology of Physical Activity is still the only textbook to offer a full survey of the evidence base for theory and practice in exercise psychology, and the only textbook that explains how to interpret the quality of the research evidence. As the field continues to grow rapidly, the new edition expands the behavioural science content of numerous important topics, including physical activity and cognitive functioning, automatic and affective frameworks for understanding physical activity involvement, new interventions designed to increase physical activity (including use of new technologies), and sedentary behaviour. A full companion website offers useful features to help students and lecturers get the most out of the book during their course, including multiple-choice revision questions, PowerPoint slides and a test bank of additional learning activities. Psychology of Physical Activity is the most authoritative, engaging and up-to-date book on exercise psychology currently available. It is essential reading for all students working in behavioural medicine, as well as the exercise and health sciences.