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The three main research questions posed in this thesis are: (i) What were Hong Kong’s strategies in mitigating the worst impact of the crisis? (ii) Why did Hong Kong commit to the resilience of its currency? (iii) Was the recovery due to luck or deliberate interventions? These questions are answered by a combination of statistical, qualitative, and economic indicator methods. Specifically, the Structural Vector AutoRegressive (SVAR) model is imposed to study the contemporaneous relationships between the real and the financial sectors. This study then draws on data collected from 20 semi-structured interviews with informed commentators to investigate reasons for the resilience of the Hong Kong dollar. Before conclusion, the Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart (KLR) signal approach is employed to forecast future currency crises. The analysis shows that: (i) Hong Kong mitigated the negative effects of the crisis through timely and appropriate interventions; (ii) committing to its position as an international financial centre, Hong Kong defended its currency persistence; (iii) mainland China contributed in underwriting pronouncements to enhance regional confidence given the reunification. Enlightened by Hong Kong’s experience, exposure to currency crises can be reduced with prudent policy interventions, trans-regional co-operation, and the backing of a large and cash-strapped partner.
This study not only examines the countries most severely affected by the Asian financial crisis, but also draws lessons from those whose economies escaped the worst problems. The author focuses on the political economy of the crisis, emphasizing long-standing problems and crisis management tactics.
An IMF paper reviewing the policy responses of Indonesia, Korea and Thailand to the 1997 Asian crisis, comparing the actions of these three countries with those of Malaysia and the Philippines. Although all judgements are still tentative, important lessons can be learned from the experiences of the last two years.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
The impacts of the so-called global crisis are, in fact, highly uneven for both households and institutions. This unique book investigates why this is the case, whilst emphasizing the consequences. It encompasses the experiences of all the major economies, including: Australia, China, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, the Netherlands, South Korea, the USA, the UK and Vietnam, highlighting and comparing a wide range of housing systems and crisis impacts. Housing Markets and the Global Financial Crisis will strongly appeal to academics and postgraduate students in social policy, urban studies, public policy, economics, sociology and human geography. In addition, anyone with a general interest in globalization, neoliberalism and the changing nature of contemporary capitalist societies, as well as those with particular interests in housing markets and housing policy, will find this book enriching and enlightening.
In the autumn of 2014, thousands of people, young and educated in their majority, occupied the chief business district and seat of the government in Hong Kong. The protest, known as the Umbrella Movement, called for ‘genuine democracy’, as well as a fairer social and economic system. The book aims to provide a dynamic framework to explain why socioeconomic forces converged to produce such a situation. Examining increasing inequality, rising prices and stagnating incomes, it stresses the role of economic and social factors, as opposed to the domestic political and constitutional issues often assumed to be the root cause behind the protests. It first argues that globalization and the increasing influence of China’s economy in Hong Kong has weighted on salaries. Second, it shows that the oligopolistic nature of the local economy has generated rents, which have reinforced inequality. The book demonstrates that the younger generation, which is still finding its place in society, has been particularly affected by these phenomena, especially with social mobility at a low point. Offering a new approach to studying the Umbrella Movement, this book will appeal to students and scholars interested in Hong Kong's political landscape, as well Chinese politics more broadly.
This book by a distinguished academic and a professional economist from the World Bank clearly demonstrates the significant role played by the real estate sector in inducing the Asian crisis; the linkage of the real estate sector to the general economy; the causes of real estate booms and subsequent busts; and the economic costs of real estate price volatility. The book also includes suggestions for moderating such volatility in the future.
This is a unique insider account of the new world of unfettered finance. The author, an Asian regulator, examines how old mindsets, market fundamentalism, loose monetary policy, carry trade, lax supervision, greed, cronyism, and financial engineering caused both the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and the current global crisis of 2008-2009. This book shows how the Japanese zero interest rate policy to fight deflation helped create the carry trade that generated bubbles in Asia whose effects brought Asian economies down. The study's main purpose is to demonstrate that global finance is so interlinked and interactive that our current tools and institutional structure to deal with critical episodes are completely outdated. The book explains how current financial policies and regulation failed to deal with a global bubble and makes recommendations on what must change.
Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Contents: (1) Recent Developments and Analysis; (2) The Global Financial Crisis and U.S. Interests: Policy; Four Phases of the Global Financial Crisis; (3) New Challenges and Policy in Managing Financial Risk; (4) Origins, Contagion, and Risk; (5) Effects on Emerging Markets: Latin America; Russia and the Financial Crisis; (6) Effects on Europe and The European Response: The ¿European Framework for Action¿; The British Rescue Plan; Collapse of Iceland¿s Banking Sector; (7) Impact on Asia and the Asian Response: Asian Reserves and Their Impact; National Responses; (8) International Policy Issues: Bretton Woods II; G-20 Meetings; The International Monetary Fund; Changes in U.S. Reg¿s. and Regulatory Structure; (9) Legislation.