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We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
In this revolutionary book, a renowned computer scientist explains the importance of teaching children the basics of computing and how it can prepare them to succeed in the ever-evolving tech world. Computers have completely changed the way we teach children. We have Mindstorms to thank for that. In this book, pioneering computer scientist Seymour Papert uses the invention of LOGO, the first child-friendly programming language, to make the case for the value of teaching children with computers. Papert argues that children are more than capable of mastering computers, and that teaching computational processes like de-bugging in the classroom can change the way we learn everything else. He also shows that schools saturated with technology can actually improve socialization and interaction among students and between students and teachers. Technology changes every day, but the basic ways that computers can help us learn remain. For thousands of teachers and parents who have sought creative ways to help children learn with computers, Mindstorms is their bible.
Understanding the Great Depression has never been more relevant than in today's economic crisis. This edited collection provides an authoritative introduction to the Great Depression as it affected the advanced countries in the 1930s. The contributions are by acknowledged experts in the field and cover in detail the experiences of Britain, Germany, and, the United States, while also seeing the depression as an international disaster. The crisis entailed the collapse of the international monetary system, sovereign default, and banking crises in many countries in the context of the most severe downturn in western economic history. The responses included protectionism, regulation, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the New Deal. The relevance to current problems facing Europe and the United States is apparent. The chapters are written at a level which will be comprehensible to advanced undergraduates in economics and history while also being a valuable source of reference for policy makers grappling with the current economic crisis. The book will be of interest to modern macroeconomists and students of interwar history alike and seeks to bring the results of modern research in economic history to a wide audience. The focus is not only on explaining how the Great Depression happened but also on understanding what eventually led to the recovery from the crisis. A key feature is that every chapter has a full list of bibliographical references which can be a platform for further study.
Combining normative analysis and theory-driven empirical research in a comparative framework, this volume clarifies and explains the connections between regional international governance, legitimacy and democracy. It focuses on the quality of democracy and the legitimacy of policy making in multilevel regional systems. The volume offers a much-needed clarification of confusing concepts such as legitimacy, democracy and 'civil society' in non-national political systems. It critically assesses the quality of democracy and legitimacy within different Regional International Organizations (RIOs); it examines how networks of non-state actors become a kind of transnational civil society and assesses their potential for solving legitimacy deficits; and it investigates the impact of democratic conditionality in different RIOs. The contributors deepen our understanding of a relatively new non-state actor on the international scene - the regional international organization - and investigate the potential contribution of transnational non-state actors to the quality of governance at the regional level.
The eleventh edition of this successful textbook for Economics majors has been thoroughly updated and revised to give more depth to core principles. Pitched at a level that will stretch readers but still comprehensible for beginners, Economics is explained in a straightforward manner, whilst maintaining the rigour needed to enable students to progress with their studies. The book features a depth and breadth of topics combined with a balance of technical and applied material. In-depth explanations of theoretical concepts are balanced with a range of real world examples help students to understand and apply the concepts they have learnt. A supporting and newly expanded Online Resource Centre features supplements for lecturers including an instructor's manual; PowerPoint slides; answers to questions in the text; class exercises; and artwork from the text. Supplements for students include self-assessment multiple choice questions with feedback; crosswords compiled from key glossary terms; a list of useful websites; maths appendices; past exam papers and additional case studies
The twelfth edition of this bestselling textbook has been revised and updated to offer Economics students a comprehensive introduction to Economics and its core principles. New case studies and boxed examples, in-depth explanations and an expanded Online Resource Centre will help students to progress with their studies.
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Budget 2011

Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee

Published: 2011-04-09

Total Pages: 212


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The report looks at the way the Office for Budget Responsibility has functioned in this, the first Budget since it was permanently established. It raises concerns about the timetable for the economic forecast, noting: the timetable agreed for this forecast and Budget required all decisions which would impact on the economic forecast to be made at least a fortnight before Budget day. It recommended that the timetable should be revisited to provide more flexibility enabling economic shocks and late political decisions to be accommodated. The Committee looked at the economy, public finances, the plan for growth, taxation and the Office for Budget Responsibility. It continues to press for a full review of the OBR including its powers, remit and relationship to Parliament. Also calling for gradual reform of the tax regime and noting the Government's decision to increase the supplementary rate of corporation tax on the oil and gas industry by 12 percentage points in the Budget - less than a year after promising to provide a stable tax regime in the sector -might weaken the Government's credibility in seeking to establish a stable tax regime. The Committee was pleased with the further reduction in corporation tax announced in the Budget as this was a positive measure aimed at boosting growth. With regard to Enterprise Zones it may have some effect in reviving particular areas, but it was noted that almost all the evidence received is unsure about the extent to which they will contribute to UK growth. It is clear that there is still much to be done on the details of this policy.
2006 Budget : Fourth report of session 2005-06, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence