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This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exposure of specific sectors of the agricultural and forestry industries varies across the region because the Southwest is climatically and topographically diverse. There is also variability in the sensitivity of different systems to the effects of climate change. Most significantly, there is potential within agricultural and forestry systems to adjust to climate-related effects either through inherent resilience or through conservative management practices. The purpose of this analysis is to describe regional vulnerabilities to climate change and adaptive actions that can be employed to maintain productivity of working lands in the coming decades.
In 2015, the Southwest and California Climate Hubs published a report describing the potential vulnerability of crops, forests and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. The exposure of specific sectors of the agricultural and forestry industries varies across the region because the Southwest is climatically and topographically diverse. There is also variability in the sensitivity of different systems to the effects of climate change. Most significantly, there is potential within agricultural and forestry systems to adjust to climate-related effects either through inherent resilience or through conservative management practices. The purpose of this report is to describe regional vulnerabilities to climate change and adaptive actions that can be employed to maintain the productivity of working lands in the coming decades.
Human activity is changing the global environment at an unprecedented rate while humanity faces a range of complex and interrelated challenges to local, regional and global development, human security and politics. Food security ranks high on the science, policy and development agendas. However, most research linking global change and food systems examines the impact of climate change on agricultural production, or the impact of agriculture on land use, pollution and biodiversity, overlooking interactions with other aspects of the food system – such as food processing, packaging, transportation and consumption and employment derived from these activities. This book demonstrates that new threats to food security which arise from environmental change require more than simply a focus on agricultural practices – what is needed is an integrated food system approach. The authors point out that the process of adapting food systems to global environmental change is not simply a search for technological solutions to increase agricultural yields. Tradeoffs across multiple scales among food system outcomes are a prevalent feature of globalized food systems. Within food systems, there are key underexplored areas that are both sensitive to environmental change and crucial to understanding its implications for food security and adaptation strategies. The authors assert that technical prescriptions alone will not efficiently manage the food security challenge. This book is their contribution to a new paradigm, which addresses food systems holistically by engaging researchers in multiple disciplines to understand the causes and drivers of vulnerability.
California is synonymous with opportunity, prosperity, and natural beauty, but climate change will certainly influence the state’s future. Changes will affect the economy, natural resources, public health, agriculture, and the livelihoods of its residents. But how big is the risk? How will Californians adapt? What will it cost? This book is the first to ask and attempt to answer these and other questions so central to the long-term health of the state. While California is undeniably unique and diverse, the challenges it faces will be mirrored everywhere. This succinct and authoritative review of the latest evidence suggests feasible changes that can sustain prosperity, mitigate adverse impacts of climate change, and stimulate research and policy dialog across the globe. The authors argue that the sooner society recognizes the reality of climate change risk, the more effectively we can begin adaptation to limit costs to present and future generations. They show that climate risk presents a new opportunity for innovation, supporting aspirations for prosperity in a lower carbon, climate altered future where we can continue economic progress without endangering the environment and ourselves.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California NRCS Area 2 for six key, climate-sensitive crops.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California NRCS Area 2 for six key, climate-sensitive crops.
In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. This work examines how farmer's perceptions and psychological distance of climate change, environmental policy perceptions, and perceived impacts influence the adoption of adaptation and mitigation behaviors and support for climate change policies across California and New Zealand. A total of 11 interviews and 162 surveys were conducted in Yolo County, California and 37 interviews and 490 surveys were conducted in Marlborough and Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. I used multiple mediation models and structural equation models to understand the relationship of a variety of factors that influence climate change behaviors and policy support. Overall, I found that farmer's experiences with specific climate change events (water in California, water in Hawke's Bay, and water and temperature impacts and future concerns) were the most salient in affecting their adoption of adaptation practices. Conversely, climate change beliefs were the most direct in affecting the adoption of mitigating behaviors. I developed a limiting factors theory based on this evidence to suggest that a farmer's future adoption of adaptation behaviors will be strongly affected by the most limiting factor within their systems (in these cases, water or temperature). Furthermore, I demonstrated the effect of environmental policy perceptions and the drivers of climate change policy support across both regions. In California, in part because environmental policies were perceived to be psychologically "close" to farmers, I found that farmer's past experiences with existing environmental policies had a larger influence on their climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and climate change policy support than their experiences with biophysical climate change impacts. Similarly, in New Zealand, I found that climate change policy support was heavily affected by climate change belief, and risk perceptions, but also strongly influenced by farmer's perceptions of the costs of climate change policies and the perceived capacity that the farmer possessed about their ability to reduce their own emissions. Overall, this work suggests that farmer's perceptions of climate change events, beliefs and risk perceptions are crucial precursors to predicting the adoption of adaptation and mitigation behaviors. However, environmental policy perceptions, cost perceptions and perceived capacity are also important for predicting support for climate change policies. Additional future work can apply these theories and approaches in other regions of agricultural production to understand if there are universal predictors for climate change behaviors.