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Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Originally published in 2005, Weather Derivative Valuation covers all the meteorological, statistical, financial and mathematical issues that arise in the pricing and risk management of weather derivatives. There are chapters on meteorological data and data cleaning, the modelling and pricing of single weather derivatives, the modelling and valuation of portfolios, the use of weather and seasonal forecasts in the pricing of weather derivatives, arbitrage pricing for weather derivatives, risk management, and the modelling of temperature, wind and precipitation. Specific issues covered in detail include the analysis of uncertainty in weather derivative pricing, time-series modelling of daily temperatures, the creation and use of probabilistic meteorological forecasts and the derivation of the weather derivative version of the Black-Scholes equation of mathematical finance. Written by consultants who work within the weather derivative industry, this book is packed with practical information and theoretical insight into the world of weather derivative pricing.
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.
​Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals as part of a risk management strategy to minimize risk associated with adverse or unexpected weather conditions. Just as traditional contingent claims, a weather derivative has an underlying measure, such as: rainfall, wind, snow or temperature. Nearly $1 trillion of the U.S. economy is directly exposed to weather-related risk. More precisely, almost 30% of the U.S. economy and 70% of U.S. companies are affected by weather. The purpose of this monograph is to conduct an in-depth analysis of financial products that are traded in the weather market. Presenting a pricing and modeling approach for weather derivatives written on various underlying weather variables will help students, researchers, and industry professionals accurately price weather derivatives, and will provide strategies for effectively hedging against weather-related risk. This book will link the mathematical aspects of the modeling procedure of weather variables to the financial markets and the pricing of weather derivatives. Very little has been published in the area of weather risk, and this volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying financial mathematics, risk management, or energy finance, in addition to investors and professionals within the financial services industry. ​
The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
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