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Small bands of fighters and terrorist groups usually seek to become full-blown insurgencies as part of their strategy for victory. But their task is difficult. The groups often start out with few members, little funding, and limited recognition, while the governments they oppose enjoy coercive and financial advantages and are seen as legitimate by most domestic and international audiences. Despite these difficulties, some groups do make the successful transition to full-blown insurgency. That transition is the focus of this paper.
This study examines how terrorist groups transition to insurgencies and identifies ways to combat proto-insurgents. It describes the steps groups must take to gain the size and capabilities of insurgencies, the role of outside state support, and actions governments can take to prevent potential insurgencies from blossoming. The most effective U.S. counterinsurgency action would be to anticipate the possibility of insurgencies developing; it could then provide training and advisory programs and inhibit outsides support.
Examines how the United States should improve its counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities through, for example, much greater focus on understanding jihadist strategy, using civil measures to strengthen the local government, and enabling local forces to conduct COIN operations. Provides a broad discussion of the investments, organizational changes, and multilateral arrangements that the United States should pursue to improve its COIN capabilities.
An analysis of insurgent warfare, looking at factors that contribute to insurgency.
Since Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the drug cartels in Dec. 2006, more than 35,000 Mexicans have died due to narco-violence. This monograph examines whether the various Mexican drug trafficking organizations are insurgents or organized criminal elements. Mexican narco-violence and its affiliated gang violence have spread across Mexico’s southern border into Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Additionally, the narco-violence is already responsible for the deaths of American citizens on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, and the potential for increased spillover violence is a major concern. This monograph argues that the Mexican drug cartels are transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) that pose a national security threat to the regional state actors; however, they are not an insurgency for four reasons. First, none of the cartels have the political aim or capability to overthrow the Mexican government. Second, the various TCOs are competing criminal organizations with approximately 90 percent of the violence being cartel on cartel. For example, the violence in the city of Juárez is largely the result of the fighting between the local Juárez cartel and the Sinaloa cartel for control of one of the primary smuggling routes into the U.S.. Third, the cartels’ use of violence and coercion has turned popular support against them thus denying them legitimacy. Fourth, although the cartels do control zones of impunity within their areas of influence, the Mexican government has captured, killed, and extradited kingpins from every major TCO.
This book is a major new study of the extent to which national mentalities, or 'ways of war', are responsible for 'national styles' of insurgency and counterinsurgency. Leading scholars examine the ways of war of particular insurgent movements, and the standard operational procedures of states and occupation forces to suppress them. Through case studies ranging from British, American and French counterinsurgency to the IRA and the Taliban, they show how 'national styles' evolve, influenced by transnational trends, ideas and practices. They examine whether we can identify a tendency to resort to a particular pattern of fighting and, if so, whether this is dictated by constants such as geography and climate, or by the available options, or else whether there exists a particular 'strategic culture' or 'national style'. Their findings show that 'national style' is not eternal but can undergo fundamental transformations.
Over 1,700 total pages ... Contains the following publications: Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment COUNTERMOBILIZATION: UNCONVENTIONAL SOCIAL WARFARE Social Media: More Than Just a Communications Medium HOW SOCIAL MEDIA AFFECTS THE DYNAMICS OF PROTEST Finding Weakness in Jihadist Propaganda NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING OF ONLINE PROPAGANDA AS A MEANS OF PASSIVELY MONITORING AN ADVERSARIAL IDEOLOGY AIRWAVES AND MICROBLOGS: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF AL-SHABAAB’S PROPAGANDA EFFECTIVENESS THE ISLAMIC STATE’S TACTICS IN SYRIA: ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN SHIFTING A PEACEFUL ARAB SPRING INTO TERRORISM TWEETING NAPOLEON AND FRIENDING CLAUSEWITZ: SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE #MILITARYSTRATEGIST TROLLING NEW MEDIA: VIOLENT EXTREMIST GROUPS RECRUITING THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA The Combatant Commander’s Guide to Countering ISIS’s Social Media Campaign #Terror - Social Media and Extremism THE WEAPONIZATION OF SOCIAL MEDIA THE COMMAND OF THE TREND: SOCIAL MEDIA AS A WEAPON IN THE INFORMATION AGE PEACEFUL PROTEST, POLITICAL REGIMES, AND THE SOCIAL MEDIA CHALLENGE THE WEAPONIZED CROWD: VIOLENT DISSIDENT IRISH REPUBLICANS EXPLOITATION OF SOCIAL IDENTITY WITHIN ONLINE COMMUNITIES Seizing the Digital High Ground: Military Operations and Politics in the Social Media Era PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL INFLUENCE CHARACTERISTIC AFFECTS ON EASE OF USE AND PEER INFLUENCE OF NEW MEDIA USERS OVER TIME FREE INTERNET AND SOCIAL MEDIA: A DUAL-EDGED SWORD
"Imagine getting on the bus to go from one major city to another. It had been a long week and all you wanted to do is get home and take a nap while doing that. Imagine falling asleep and enjoying the rest on the bus. Now imagine as the bus is driving up a mountain you wake to hearing someone scream out something incoherent and you can feel the bus swerve to the right and through a road barrier and over the side of the mountain. Some of the people you are with on the bus fly out the window as it crashes down the mountain into a ravine while others fly around the bus slamming into each other, into metal and into shattering glass. As the bus slams down you can feel parts of your body break and you see other people die in front of you. You then lose consciousness. When you wake, you are lying outside the bus with glass and screaming people around you just above a bus that is now with its roof on the ground. Besides your own pain you can see the dead, the dying and the broken people all around you and dozens of people streaming down the valley to come help you and the people around you"--
Insurgencies have dominated the focus of the U.S. military for the past seven years, but they have a much longer history than that and are likely to figure prominently in future U.S. military operations. Thus, the general characteristics of insurgencies and, more important, how they end are of great interest to U.S. policymakers. This study constitutes the unclassified portion of a two-part study that examines insurgencies in great detail. The research documented in this monograph focuses on insurgency endings generally. Its findings are based on a quantitative examination of 89 cases.
This book provides a new approach to explaining prolonged rebellions and insurgent wars, as well as a more nuanced and multi-faceted account of the entire lifespans of rebel and insurgent groups. Since 1945, rebel and insurgent groups have increasingly dragged larger, better funded, and ostensibly militarily superior regimes into protracted intrastate conflicts. This book demonstrates how they were able to endure the hardships of warfare thanks to decisions made before the conflict erupted––a period of time the author refers to as “incubation.” Using case studies on Latin American insurgencies, the author demonstrates that their capacity to endure was directly associated with both the length and quality of each group’s prewar preparations.