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The Brazilian trade-oriented policies aim to reverse the negative effects of protectionist policies adopted in the past. Traditional trade theory predicts that trade liberalization brings efficiency, and open countries fare better in the long run than do closed ones, but the short run impacts from trade liberalization might harm the poor. In addition to Brazil having unequal regional distribution of income, with high levels of poverty, excessive price and exchange rate volatility caused by uncoordinated macroeconomic policies among trade partners can affect trade and resource allocation among members of a free trade area. This book takes these concerns seriously by assessing the economic impacts of a reduction in import tariffs on poverty and distribution of income, and also evaluates the role played by the lack of macroeconomic policy coordination and the patterns of trade in the Mercosur and in the proposed FTAA. Poverty and regional income inequality can be reduced through combined trade and tax policies. Less exchange rate volatility can increase bilateral trade. Reduction in the level of tariffs and increase in countries' income are also important pro-trade variables.
Abstract: After the creation of the Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), in the beginning of the 1990s, new free trade agreements began to be debated between Mercosur and other countries. Traditional trade theory predicts that trade liberalization reallocates resources according to comparative advantage, reduces waste, and lowers the price of imported goods in a more transparent economic regime, with less lobbying activities, and exports not only grow rapidly, but also become more diversified. Most economists also share that open countries fare better in the long run than do closed ones, but the short run impacts from trade liberalization can harm the poor. Since Brazil is one of the countries with larger inequality in the distribution of income, with high levels of poverty and regional differences, this study takes these concerns seriously by assessing the economic impacts of a reduction in import tariffs on poverty and distribution of income, identifying a combined policy that can reduce possible negative impacts from trade reform on the poor, through a single-country multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) applied to Brazil. The main findings show that poverty and regional income inequality can be reduced through combined trade and tax policies. In recent years, countries like Argentina and Brazil have experienced many different economic crises due to their own domestic instabilities, which have contributed to delayed market opening in these countries, and have threatened the evolution of new trade agreements. This study also emphasizes the lack of macroeconomic policy coordination between Mercosur and the Free Trade Area of Americas (FTAA) countries, notably the exchange rate policy through the impact of real bilateral exchange rate volatility on trade. Therefore, a sectoral gravity model is estimated to evaluate not only the role played by the lack of macroeconomic policy coordination, but also to better evaluate the patterns of trade in the Mercosur and in the proposed FTAA. The overall results show that the reduction in the level of exchange rate volatility can increase bilateral trade, and gradual reduction in the level of tariffs and increase in countries' income are also important pro-trade variables.
The global financial crisis triggered a broad reassessment of economic integration policies in developed and developing countries worldwide. The crisis-induced collapse in trade was the sharpest ever since World War II, affecting all countries and all product categories. A huge shock to the trading system, combined with severe macroeconomic instability, makes it natural for policymakers to call into question the basic underlying assumptions of trade liberalization and openness. In particular, outward-oriented or export-led growth strategies are being reassessed as openness is increasingly associated with greater volatility. However, it is crucial not to lose sight of the dynamic benefits that openness can offer. Examples include technology transfer, increased competitive pressure that reduces markups and improves efficiency, and economies of scale. The real question is how to manage outward-oriented strategies so as to maximize the benefits of openness while minimizing risks. This book aims to contribute to this important and ongoing policy debate, bringing together recent empirical work on the trade collapse, its causes and consequences, and the broader trade policy agenda in the post-crisis environment. It addresses critical policy issues revolving around the topic of outward-oriented growth strategy, including policy instruments that help manage risks associated with outward-orientation, lessons learned from the crisis for particular countries and regions, and how emerging trade policy issues such as climate change, commodities, global production networking, and migration affect the prospects for recovery and outward-oriented growth.
Can knowledge of financial policies in developing countries over four decades help the socialist economies of Asia and Eastern Europe become open market economies in the 1990s? In all these countries the loss of fiscal and monetary control has often resulted in high inflation that undermines the liberalization process itself. In the second edition of The Order of Economic Liberalization, Ronald McKinnon builds on his influential work on the liberalization of financial markets in less developed countries and outlines the progression necessary to move from a "repressed" to an open economy. New to this edition are chapters that contrast the gradual Chinese approach to liberalizing domestic and foreign trade with the "big bang" approach followed by some Eastern European countries and republics of the former Soviet Union. Financial control and macroeconomic stability, McKinnon argues, are more critical to a successful transition than is any crash program to privatize state-owned industrial assets and the banking system.
There is growing dissatisfaction with the economic policies advocated by the IMF and other international financial institutions - policies that have often resulted in stagnating growth, crises, and recessions for client countries. This book presents an alternative to "Washington Consensus" neo-liberal economic policies by showing that both macro-economic and liberalization policy must be sensitive to the particular circumstances of developing countries. One-size-fits-all policy prescriptions are likely to fail given the vast differences between countries. This book discusses how alternative approaches to economic policy can better serve developing countries both in ordinary times and in times of crisis.
Bold moves were effective in trade reform in Chile, Turkey, and Venezuela. But discredited governments, in countries with a history of policy failure, are probably better off sending no signals of policy reform and approaching it in small, cautious steps.
This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.
Weighing up the costs and benefits of economic interdependence in a finance-driven world, this book argues that globalization, understood and promoted as absolute freedom for all forms of capital, has been oversold to the Global South, and that the South should be as selective about globalization as the North. ‘Liberalization, Financial Instability and Economic Development’ challenges the orthodoxy on the link between financial deepening and economic growth, as well as that between the efficiency of financial markets and the benefits of liberalization. Ultimately, the author urges developing countries to control capital flows and asset bubbles, preventing financial fragility and crises, and recommends regional policy options for managing capital flows and exchange rates.