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When the investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in late 2008, the news sent shockwaves across the global economy. The drop in confidence decimated world trade, leading to what the authors of this book call the Great Trade Collapse. The fall in trade was sudden, severe and synchronised - falling faster than during the Great Depression and by more than at any time since the Second World War; more than during the oil-price hikes of the 1970s, the recession of the early 1980s and the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001. It affected all 104 nations on which the WTO reports. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org to inform world leaders ahead of the WTO's Trade Ministerial conference in Geneva in late 2009, presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the causes, consequence and prospects of the Great Trade Collapse - a wisdom that continues to serve the trade community today. The authors are: Dony Alex, Carlo Altomonte, Sonia Araujo, Richard Baldwin, Rudolfs Bems, Fred Bergsten, Gilberto Biacuna, Ingo Borchert, Peter Draper, Simon Evenett, Michael Ferrantino, Lionel Fontagne, Joseph Francois, Caroline Freund, Jeffry Frieden, Guillaume Gaulier, Leonardo Iacovone, David Jacks, Robert Johnson, Tonia Kandiero, Anne Krueger, Rajiv Kumar, Aimee Larsen, Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis, Aaditya Mattoo, Christopher Meissner, Jesse Mora, Leonce Ndikumana, Dennis Novy, Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Kevin O'Rourke, Gianmarco Ottaviano, William Powers, Raymond Robertson, Peter Schott, Daria Taglioni, Kiyoyasu Tanaka, Linda Tesar, Ruyhei Wakasugi, Julia Woerz, Kei-Mu Yi, Veronika Zavacka.
The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
This volume provides insights on the role of trade finance in the 2008-2009 ?Great Trade Collapse" and the subsequent role of governments and institutions to help restore trade finance markets. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between the World Bank Group, international financial partners, private banks, and academia.
This paper provides a theory model of trade finance to explain the "great trade collapse." The model shows that, first, the riskiness of international transactions rises relative to domestic transactions during economic downturns, and second, the exclusive use of a letter of credit in international transactions exacerbates a collapse in trade during a financial crisis. The basic model considers banks' optimal screening decisions in the presence of counterparty default risks. In equilibrium, banks will maintain a higher precision screening test for domestic firms and a lower precision screening test for foreign firms, which constitutes the main mechanism of the model.
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Provides a state-of-the-art overview of international trade policy research The Handbook of Global Trade Policy offers readers a comprehensive resource for the study of international trade policy, governance, and financing. This timely and authoritative work presents contributions from a team of prominent experts that assess the policy implications of recent academic research on the subject. Discussions of contemporary research in fields such as economics, international business, international relations, law, and global politics help readers develop an expansive, interdisciplinary knowledge of 21st century foreign trade. Accessible for students, yet relevant for practitioners and researchers, this book expertly guides readers through essential literature in the field while highlighting new connections between social science research and global policy-making. Authoritative chapters address new realities of the global trade environment, global governance and international institutions, multilateral trade agreements, regional trade in developing countries, value chains in the Pacific Rim, and more. Designed to provide a well-rounded survey of the subject, this book covers financing trade such as export credit arrangements in developing economies, export insurance markets, climate finance, and recent initiatives of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This state-of-the-art overview: Integrates new data and up-to-date research in the field Offers an interdisciplinary approach to examining global trade policy Introduces fundamental concepts of global trade in an understandable style Combines contemporary economic, legal, financial, and policy topics Presents a wide range of perspectives on current issues surrounding trade practices and policies The Handbook of Global Trade Policy is a valuable resource for students, professionals, academics, researchers, and policy-makers in all areas of international trade, economics, business, and finance.
How trade imbalances spurred on the global financial crisis and why we aren't out of trouble yet China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations that will have long-lasting effects. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
One cannot exaggerate the importance of estimating how international trade responds to changes in income and prices. But there is a tension between whether one should use models that fit the data but that contradict certain aspects of the underlying theory or models that fit the theory but contradict certain aspects of the data. The essays in Estimating Trade Elasticities book offer one practical approach to deal with this tension. The analysis starts with the practical implications of optimising behaviour for estimation and it follows with a re-examination of the puzzling income elasticity for US imports that three decades of studies have not resolved. The analysis then turns to the study of the role of income and prices in determining the expansion in Asian trade, a study largely neglected in fifty years of research. With the new estimates of trade elasticities, the book examines how they assist in restoring the consistency between elasticity estimates and the world trade identity.
The extreme protectionism that contributed to a collapse of world trade in the 1930s is examined in light of the recent economic crisis. The recent economic crisis—with the plunge in the stock market, numerous bank failures and widespread financial distress, declining output and rising unemployment—has been reminiscent of the Great Depression. The Depression of the 1930s was marked by the spread of protectionist trade policies, which contributed to a collapse in world trade. Although policymakers today claim that they will resist the protectionist temptation, recessions are breeding grounds for economic nationalism, and countries may yet consider imposing higher trade barriers. In Trade Policy Disaster, Douglas Irwin examines what we know about trade policy during the traumatic decade of the 1930s and considers what we can learn from the policy missteps of the time. Irwin argues that the extreme protectionism of the 1930s emerged as a consequence of policymakers' reluctance to abandon the gold standard and allow their currencies to depreciate. By ruling out exchange rate changes as an adjustment mechanism, policymakers turned instead to higher tariffs and other means of restricting imports. He offers a clear and concise exposition of such topics as the effect of higher trade barriers on the implosion of world trade; the impact of the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930; the reasons some countries adopted draconian trade restrictions (including exchange controls and import quotas) but others did not; the effect of preferential trade arrangements and bilateral clearing agreements on the multilateral system of world trade; and lessons for avoiding future trade wars.