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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Ronald Jones suggests how the basic core of real trade theory can be modified to take into account the increased international mobility of inputs and productive factors. As trade liberalization and the fragmentation of production processes promote greater international exchange of inputs, economists must adjust their thinking on trade issues. Transport costs have plummeted, and the difficulties of communicating between locales half a world apart have practically vanished. In this book Ronald Jones suggests how the basic core of real trade theory can be modified to take into account the increased international mobility of inputs and productive factors. He emphasizes the role of country "hinterlands" and how it is related to agglomeration effects in determining the location of economic activity. After discussing the positive aspects of enhanced mobility for output patterns and market prices, Jones evaluates the significance of globalization for governmental trade policies and public attitudes about regional alliances.
Value chain trade has challenged economic implications of conventional trade statistics and transformed bilateral trade relationships into multilaterals. Conventional trade statistics exaggerate trade volumes and bilateral trade imbalances. It is imperative to measure trade in value-added and examine trade relations in the context of global value chains. This book is a collection of research papers on new approaches to measure trade in value added and the role of global value chains in modern international trade. It introduces the input output method for measuring trade and a direct approach for measuring the domestic value added of the People's Republic of China — the center of global assembly. In addition, it shows how to analyze trade relations in the context of global value chains.
World-renowned economist Ronald W. Jones gets to the essence of international trade theory in this collection of articles that span over half a century of his published work. As the global economy has grown, so too has the need for a deeper rooted understanding of trade -- and its assorted benefits. With clear, simplifying prose, Jones elucidates the Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin, and Specific-Factors models of general equilibrium theory. Jones' pioneering work anticipates, among other changes in our time, the creation of far-flung supply chains brought about by the falling costs of service links. The theoretical, technical, and historical insights in the text are peppered with personal notes that capture modern intellectual development in the field, providing a bedrock foundation in international trade for students and practitioners alike.
Doing business in the digital age The Great Fragmentation: And Why the Future of All Business is Small is a business survival manifesto for the technology revolution. As the world moves from the industrial era to the digital age, power is shifting and fragmenting. Power is no longer about might and ownership; power in a digital world is about access. Existing businesses need to understand this shift and position themselves to survive and thrive in an environment where entrepreneurs and start-ups enabled by access to technology are genuine threats. Author Steve Sammartino is widely regarded as a thought leader on the subject of technology and business, and helps companies transition from industrial-era thinking to the mindset and processes required to compete in today's digital marketplace. The Great Fragmentation shows how technological changes such as Big Data, gamification, crowdfunding, Bitcoin, 3D printing, social media, mashup culture and artisanal production will forever change business and the way we live our lives. Examine how the digital era has altered where we work, how we work, where we live and what we do Discover how the digital era has impacted social and economic structures, including educational systems, financial systems and government policy Understand that the social media and collecting 'friends' is just the tip of the iceberg in a digital business environment Weaving together insights from business, technology and anthropology, The Great Fragmentation provides both corporations and entrepreneurs with a playbook for the future of work, life and business in the digital era.
A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.
The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.