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Anna Mathieu clarifies if real estate decisions are affected by investor and consumer sentiment and how severely the sentiment should be considered. With regard to international capital markets Mathieu conducts an analysis of the impact of investor sentiment on the return of the real estate-specific investment vehicle “Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)” by applying a GARCH-Model. She investigates the effects of investor sentiment on the return and the underlying volatilities of REITs and Non-REITs during the financial crisis. The hypotheses are tested for validity in a GARCH-Model. Parallel to capital markets and thereby in changing from an indirect Real Estate investment perspective to a direct perspective the author conducts an analysis if consumer sentiment impacts the household decision to buy a new home in the US. Therefore a dataset with 385 monthly observations from 1978 to 2010 is tested by a component model.
The aim of this study is to better understand stable capital growth of German properties and to contribute to the explanation of stable fund returns. In the course of the investigation, evidence is found that both phenomena are interrelated. All analyses are based on publicly available data; therefore they are not limited by client interests. Results show three different pieces of evidence on return smoothing, namely the influence on valuation, the timing of valuations, and the influence on returns resulting in return differences by calendar months. Together with the notion of internationally uniquely stable returns, it seems impossible to extract true asset volatility from the observed appraisal-based time series.
Chapter 1 compares the direct real estate (DRE) duration Beta estimates with the time-varying Beta regression estimates, for each of the three prime DRE sectors. Except for the prime office sector, both the duration Beta and the time-varying Beta profiles follow the same general trend. The luxury residential sector and the prime office sector are inclined to move in opposite direction. However, the prime office sector shows greater volatility in the duration Beta compared with the time-varying Beta. Chapter 2 demonstrates overall that in the presence of a set of limited available information comprising a direct real estate (DRE) asset’s passing (annual) rent, the current rental value, the expected yields and the yield-growth movements from a DRE sector analysis, conducted by a DRE consultancy or service provider, the risk-free rate and the lease maturity period; it is readily feasible to model and rigorously estimate several key risk measures and the expected total returns (TRs). Such a model and its estimations can be achieved through an ex-ante integrated DRE risk-measure model, which innovatively combines the bond duration-convexity risk conception, the Beta distribution function, and the DRE equivalent (rental) yield valuation conception. Finally, Chapter 3 looks at the structural and behavioural experience of the prepayment risk for the underlying mortgages of China’s rapidly developing residential mortgage life insurance (RMLI) market. A reliable private prepayment dataset for China’s commercial center - the city of Shanghai - is deployed. Chapter 3 estimates the relationship between RMLI’s underlying mortgage prepayment risk and the observable macroeconomic factors, loan specific factors and borrower specific characteristics. A Cox proportional hazard model is adopted for this purpose. Chapter 4 summarises the book’s findings and highlights the contributions and recommendations made
Introduces three innovative concepts and associated financial instruments with the potential to revolutionize real estate finance Covers methodological issues pertaining to real estate risk analysis factors Proposes concepts and methods for identifying, pricing and trading these new property rights. Essential reading for all real estate, finance and smart technology researchers and professionals
What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
This work provides the investing public, real estate practitioners, regulators and real estate and finance academics with up-to-date information on what modern scholarly research tells us about Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs are credited to allow institutional and individual investors to invest in real estate via a corporate entity. The increasing interest in REITs as indicated by their growth in market capitalization and institutional holdings in the United States and around the world suggests that REITs are becoming an increasingly important part of investors' diversified portfolio.
As the title indicates, Essays in Honor of James A. Graaskamp: Ten Years After, is a collection of essays written to honor Graaskamp's major contributions to the field of real estate education and practice over the course of three decades. Upon his death in 1988, the industry lost a major influence for advancing the real estate discipline, both as an academic field and a professional field. The authors in this volume seek to extend Graaskamp's contributions and move the real estate discipline forward. The papers address the challenges posed by the market to return our attention to real estate fundamentals, and to strike a proper balance between Main Street and Wall Street. The authors and editors hope that this book will influence the industry to incorporate many of Grasskamp's ideas into mainstream real estate education and practice. Over the course of his career, Graaskamp made many noteworthy contributions to real estate theory and practice, ideas that if resurrected could offset some of the pressure in the industry to move away from market fundamentals. The authors try to capture the essence of Graaskamp's messages, and intend that the papers serve as a point of departure for discussing the future role and nature of real estate education. Part I focuses on the major contributions to the real estate discipline made by Graaskamp and the Wisconsin Real Estate Program. Part II contains some personal recollections and photos of Graaskamp, and also a summary of the groups that make up the Wisconsin Real Estate Program, a major co-sponsor of this volume. The rest of the book's three main parts are structured around major topics that reflect the multidisciplinary nature of real estate as espoused by Graaskamp. Part III treats real estate feasibility and development, Part IV concentrates on real estate valuation, and Part V discusses institutional economics.