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High and persistent external imbalances have become a key concern in the global economy, particularly after the Global Financial Crisis. The issue is particularly pertinent in Europe, as it poses challenges not only for its economic cohesion but also for its political coherence and the viability of the European project at large. In this study we investigate the sustainability of external imbalances in 15 countries from what is increasingly seen as the European periphery over the period 2000-2012 using quartely data. We apply a range of methods and compare across them to obtain a comprehensive picture of the patterns characterising external imbalances in this area. We find that external imbalances are on the whole large and, despite some significant adjustments in the post-crisis period, they continue to follow paths that are possibly unsustainable. Our results show a higher likelihood of confirming sustainability when looking separately at the current account and the net foreign asset position than when looking jointly at the trade and capital accounts (and thus at the overall fiscal reaction function - Bohn, 2007). This suggests, albeit tentatively, problems and vulnerabilities that go beyond simple concerns about price competitiveness and the trade performance of the countries under study.
We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of EU countries using two complementary approaches. First, we employ both time-series and panel-data stationarity tests of current account balance-to-GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance that stabilizes the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance mainly in a few surplus countries whereas there is more concern about the sustainability of the NIIP or NED in countries with a credit position than in countries with a debit position. Both approaches are consistent with each other given the relationship between flows and stocks, the existence of important structural breaks, and valuation effects via the exchange rate.
Since the mid-1990s, sustainability of large and persistent current account positions have been attracting much attention from policy makers and economists alike. Alongside global imbalances, sustainability of imbalances within the euro area, which started widening shortly after the introduction of the euro, raised much concern. While there exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on sustainability of external imbalances, a systematic survey has been lacking so far. Angélique Herzberg fills this gap by examining a broad range of established sustainability measures concerning their applicability to the various global and intra-euro imbalances of the recent past. Furthermore, the author examines the existence of feedback effects from an economy ́s net international investment position to its trade balance.
This book revisits the forgotten history of the 'European Dependency School' in the 1970s and 1980s, explores core-periphery relations in the European integration process and the crises of the contemporary European Union from a dependency perspective, and draws lessons for alternative development paths. Was disintegration of the European Union foretold? With the benefit of hindsight, the critical analysis of the European integration process by researchers from the 'European Dependency School' is most timely. The current framework of the European Union seems to be haunted by issues that had been very familiar to the researchers of the 'European Dependency School', such as a lack of a common and balanced industrial policy. How do the situations compare? What lessons can be learnt for alternative development policies in contemporary Europe? Weissenbacher tackles these issues, which are of relevance to all interested in political economy, political science, development studies and regional development.
This book offers a fresh perspective on the recent Eurozone "double crisis" and its related economic policies. The authors present empirical evidence which sheds new light on the growing economic and political debate on the future of the Euro, the Eurozone and the EU. The book investigates and assesses the impact of the crisis with particular reference to monetary and fiscal policy, whose protracted austerity approach has dampened economic growth. In their discussion of the long-run European integration process, the authors emphasize the original weaknesses in the construction of the European Monetary Union and examine its failure to respond to the recent crisis. The concluding chapter focuses on the need for crucial reform in European governance and discusses the impact of the UK’s recent EU membership referendum. Scholars, students and members of the general public with an interest in the future of the Eurozone will find this work thought-provoking, instructive and highly informative.
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Europe is suffering from a bipolar economic disorder. Financial journalists divide the continent into two groups of nations - centre and periphery - not by geography but by credit rating. Europe on the Brink is a critical investigation of the root causes of this sovereign debt crisis, and the often misguided policy choices made to resolve it. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, together with two other finance experts, compares debt contagion in Europe with regional financial crises elsewhere, while Roberto Lavagna, former economics minister in Argentina, provides a poignant comparative analysis with his own country’s experience. Crucially and uniquely, Portuguese, Greek and Irish economists provide hard-hitting case studies from the perspective of the periphery. This much-needed book offers a heterodox economic perspective on the causes, symptoms and solutions of the biggest economic issue currently facing Europe.
This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.
This open access book explores the most recent trends in the EU in terms of development, progress, and performance. Ten years after the 2008 economic crisis, and amidst a digital revolution that is intensifying the development race, the European Union, and especially Central and Eastern Europe, are ardently searching for their development priorities. Against this background, by relying on a cross-national perspective, the authors reflect upon the developmental challenges of the moment, such as sustainable development, reducing inequality, ensuring social cohesion, and driving the digital revolution. They particularly focus on the relation between the less-developed Eastern part of the EU and its more developed Western counterpart, and discuss the consequences of this development gap in detail. Lastly, the book presents a range of case studies from different areas of governance, such as economy and commerce, health services, education, migration and public opinion in order to investigate the trends most likely to impact the European Union's medium and long-term development.
The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the rising imbalances are correct, but are incomplete. We uncover a large impact of declines in export competitiveness and asymmetric trade developments vis-à-vis the rest of the world –in particular vis-à-vis China, Central and Eastern Europe, and oil exporters- on the external balance of euro area debtor countries. While current account imbalances of euro area deficit countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world increased, they were financed mostly by intra-euro area capital inflows (in particular by the purchase of government and financial institutions’ securities, and cross-border interbank lending) which permitted external imbalances to grow over time.