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The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
The U.S. population is aging. Social Security projections suggest that between 2013 and 2050, the population aged 65 and over will almost double, from 45 million to 86 million. One key driver of population aging is ongoing increases in life expectancy. Average U.S. life expectancy was 67 years for males and 73 years for females five decades ago; the averages are now 76 and 81, respectively. It has long been the case that better-educated, higher-income people enjoy longer life expectancies than less-educated, lower-income people. The causes include early life conditions, behavioral factors (such as nutrition, exercise, and smoking behaviors), stress, and access to health care services, all of which can vary across education and income. Our major entitlement programs - Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income - have come to deliver disproportionately larger lifetime benefits to higher-income people because, on average, they are increasingly collecting those benefits over more years than others. This report studies the impact the growing gap in life expectancy has on the present value of lifetime benefits that people with higher or lower earnings will receive from major entitlement programs. The analysis presented in The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income goes beyond an examination of the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive estimates of how lifetime benefits are affected by the changing distribution of life expectancy. The report also explores, from a lifetime benefit perspective, how the growing gap in longevity affects traditional policy analyses of reforms to the nation's leading entitlement programs. This in-depth analysis of the economic impacts of the longevity gap will inform debate and assist decision makers, economists, and researchers.
Compared to other regions, Europe and Central Asia are by far the oldest. Moreover, population aging is set to accelerate further over the coming decades as large segments turn old. Additionally, some countries such as Russia and certain Eastern European countries are facing a shrinkage of their population. Against this backdrop, this report investigates what stands in the way of societies reaping the full benefits of increased longevity--that is, longer lives and potentially prolonged payoffs from human capital--and what can help to mitigate the possible negative impacts of a smaller and older workforce. Beginning with a focus on demographic trends, the report puts the rapid decline in fertility and contrasting migration trends in the region in a historical perspective and looks forward to the varying paths that population change may follow in the region. Next, it examines the evidence on the likely impact of demographic change on growth and savings, the labor force, firm and economy-wide innovation, poverty and inequality, and intergenerational solidarity. Finally, the report goes beyond diagnostics and puts an emphasis on what we know regarding successful policy interventions, presenting evidence on what has and has not worked in the past.--Publisher description.
Population ageing - a growth in the proportion of a population that is in older age - is now occurring in every region and nearly every country of the world. Indeed, the growth of older populations is among the important global phenomena of the twenty-first century. It poses both opportunities and challenges for societies and policy makers, but these are far from uniform worldwide. Dynamic factors are at work impacting on how ageing will influence people, places and policies and there are large variations in the rate and timing of population ageing across countries, owing to differing social, health and economic circumstances and a variety of policy options from which to choose. Given this variation in the context of global ageing as a backdrop, this edited book focuses on three overarching themes that are among the most critical to understand if societies are to age successfully in the twenty-first century and beyond: Healthy ageing and health care; the ageing workforce, retirement and the provision of pensions; shifting intergenerational relations. These three themes are cross-cut by other dimensions that are intertwined with the dynamic processes of ageing, such as immigration/emigration, contrasting policy regimes and global and national economic forces. This ground-breaking book will be of interest to all scholars, students and policy-makers working within this area of study.
As people age, they are at increased risk of having their basic human rights threatened or violated. When age is perceived as incompetence, it can easily lead to discrimination that impacts human rights. Based on the premise that social policy must reflect human rights principles, this graduate-level textbook views the challenges associated with aging as opportunities for policy development that stresses the rights of older adults rather than needs. The text distinguishes between “needs” and “rights” and describes those policies and services that best ensure that the rights of older adults are actually met—particularly programs that enable people to remain in their own communities so they can benefit from continued integration and participation in society. Issues and challenges surrounding such efforts, and gaps in social policies faced by specific subsets of older people, are critically examined. The book first analyzes current aging policies and rights and considers the Older Americans Act as a basic policy framework. With an eye to promoting independence, the book discusses issues of income, housing, transportation, health, and home care and what constitutes a “livable community,” along with policies that promote wellbeing and focus on preventing senior abuse and exploitation. Challenges faced by older workers are covered, as are issues particular to family caregivers, older women, and grandparents as caregivers. Gaps in social policies for LG BT seniors and older members of specific ethnic groups are discussed. Particular attention is given to global issues and aging policies in diverse countries and the ways in which they reflect human rights concerns. Each chapter concludes with probing discussion questions for classroom use. KEY FEATURES: Presents a human rights framework for aging policy Distinguishes between needs and rights of older persons Focuses on policies and programs that can help older people to remain in the community Explores the issues and challenges of specific older populations Discusses global responses and concerns with regard to older persons and human rights Carole B. Cox, MSW, PhD, is professor at the Graduate School of Social Service, Fordham University. She is a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America and a Fulbright scholar. She is the author of more than 50 journal articles and chapters dealing with various aspects of aging and caregiving, with extensive research on caregivers for persons with dementia, their needs, and their use of services. Her recent work includes a study of the impact of dementia on the workplace. Her caregiving research also includes that of grandparents raising grandchildren, leading to the development of a curriculum, Empowering Grandparents Raising Grandchildren: A Training Manual for Group Leaders (Springer Publishing Company, 2000). She is the editor of To Grandmother’s House We Go and Stay: Perspectives on Custodial Grandparents (Springer Publishing Company, 2000). Her other books include Home Care for the Elderly: An International Perspective, coauthored with Abraham Monk (1991); The Frail Elderly: Problems, Needs, and Community Responses (1993); Ethnicity and Social Work Practice, coauthored with Paul Ephross (1998); Community Care for an Aging Society: Policies and Services (Springer Publishing Company, 2005); and Dementia and Social Work Practice (Springer Publishing Company, 2007).
This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.
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The population of Asia is growing both larger and older. Demographically the most important continent on the world, Asia's population, currently estimated to be 4.2 billion, is expected to increase to about 5.9 billion by 2050. Rapid declines in fertility, together with rising life expectancy, are altering the age structure of the population so that in 2050, for the first time in history, there will be roughly as many people in Asia over the age of 65 as under the age of 15. It is against this backdrop that the Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the U.S. National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC), through the Committee on Population, to undertake a project on advancing behavioral and social research on aging in Asia. Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives is a peer-reviewed collection of papers from China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Thailand that were presented at two conferences organized in conjunction with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, and Science Council of Japan; the first conference was hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, and the second conference was hosted by the Indian National Science Academy in New Delhi. The papers in the volume highlight the contributions from new and emerging data initiatives in the region and cover subject areas such as economic growth, labor markets, and consumption; family roles and responsibilities; and labor markets and consumption.