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This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.
Experts believe that Brazil, the world’s fifth largest country and its seventh largest economy, will be one of the most important global powers by the year 2030. Yet far more attention has been paid to the other rising behemoths Russia, India, and China. Often ignored and underappreciated, Brazil, according to renowned, award-winning journalist Michael Reid, has finally begun to live up to its potential, but faces important challenges before it becomes a nation of substantial global significance. After decades of military rule, the fourth most populous democracy enjoyed effective reformist leadership that tamed inflation, opened the country up to trade, and addressed poverty and other social issues, enabling Brazil to become more of an essential participant in global affairs. But as it prepares to host the 2014 soccer World Cup and 2016 Olympics, Brazil has been rocked by mass protest. This insightful volume considers the nation’s still abundant problems—an inefficient state, widespread corruption, dysfunctional politics, and violent crime in its cities—alongside its achievements to provide a fully rounded portrait of a vibrant country about to take a commanding position on the world stage.
This Selected Issues Paper discusses the macroeconomic implications of pension reforms in Brazil. It assesses empirically the relationship between fiscal policy and the real effective exchange rate in emerging markets and draws policy implications. It reviews the current status of local capital markets in the country, the key challenges, and policy options for further development. The paper also provides a detailed description of consumer credit developments and analyzes recent indicators of household financial distress associated with the credit expansion that has taken place in the last couple of years.
This edited collection provides a thorough historical, statistical, and institutional description of the current Brazilian economy and the previous economic structure from which it is emerging. The contributions explore the institutional economic and cultural forces shaping the current development of the Brazilian economy and discuss how they will influence future progress. Together, the chapters form a picture of the international implications of Brazil’s emergence as a major world economic power. Topics covered include the growth and shrinkage of industry, the consumption boom and the financial crisis, sustainable financial growth and public debt management, the evolution of antitrust policy and the privatization of state-owned firms, and more. Academics and researchers of BRICS countries and Latin American and Caribbean studies will find these contributions a valuable addition to their research.
Capital market development in Brazil is a key policy issue going forward to foster savings, investment and absorptive capacity in a context of prospects for sizable capital flows in the medium term. During the last decade, Brazil has achieved substantial progress in capital market development. The menu of available financial instruments has been expanded, market infrastructure has been reformed and strengthened, and a diversified investor base has been built. Nonetheless, Brazil’s capital markets are still facing a number of challenges including prevalent short-term indexation, investors’ risk aversion to long-term fixed rate bonds, still low liquidity in the secondary market, and managing the role of BNDES. A shift to a lower yield curve environment should continue to gradually take place. But further progress will require continued policy effort to assure macro stability and financial sector reforms to promote the development of longer-term private finance.
This book analyzes the affect that government institutions have on whether or not microfinance contributes to poverty alleviation in the context of Latin America. It concludes that political and economic stability, as well as and law order, have a statistically significant impact on microfinance effectiveness. The conditions that promote poverty alleviation are not entirely the same as those upon which major microfinance investors base their funding decisions. The result is that much microfinance funding is going to the wrong places. This means that not only is microfinance not helping the poor, but under the wrong conditions it actually exacerbates poverty. The author arrives at these conclusions through a mixed methods approach, using both statistical analysis and case studies.
In terms accessible to non-economists, Marcos José Mendes describes the ways democracy and inequality produce low growth in the short and medium terms. In the longer term, he argues that Brazil has two paths in front of it. One is to create the conditions necessary to boost economic performance and drive the country toward a high level of development. The other is to fail in untying the political knot that blocks growth, leaving it a middle-income country. The source of his contrasting futures for Brazil is inequality, which he demonstrates is a relevant variable in any discussion of economic growth. Inequality illuminates causes of seemingly-unconnected problems. This book, which includes freely-accessible documents and datasets, is the first in-depth analysis of an issue that promises to become increasingly prominent. - Contrasting visions of Brazil's future described in economic terms - Easy-to-understand graphs and tables illustrate analytical arguments - All Excel-based data available on a freely-accessible website
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Provides the basic economic tools for students to understand the problems in the countries of Latin America. This third edition analyzes challenges to the neoliberal model of development and highlights macroeconomic changes in the region. It explores the contradictions of growth, and focuses on factors of competitiveness.