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"This special report by the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group (MPG) is concerned with the implementation of the prohibition of excessive deficits contained in the Treaty of Maastricht via the Stability and Growth Pact. Specifically, it deals with the controversy that was provoked by the failure of the ECOFIN Council of 25 November 2003, to endorse recommendations of the European Commission to put France and Germany on notice that they had violated the Treatys prohibition of excessive deficits"--CEPS website.
A key message of this report is that full and effective implementation of proposed legislation will be necessary to ensure a true internal market for energy in the EU, but this alone will not be sufficient. In parallel, more attention must be paid to other, less-prominent fields. The report singles out i) the introduction of incentive-based network regulation and ii) the careful design of principal elements of the wholesale market, i.e. trade of electricity and gas for resale ("wholesale market design and rules"). Moreover, the internal market needs to be buttressed with the consistent application of competition rules across member states to avoid the creation of national champions. The report also argues that a functioning electricity and gas market depends on market-compatible solutions to security of supply and environmental issues and a rethinking of "executive agencies", whose use to date is inhibited by the Meroni doctrine.
Over the past decade, the global economy has been on a dynamic path that is clearly unsustainable, with ever-increasing current account deficits in the United States, financed by surpluses in emerging market economies. In its latest report, the authoritative CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group explores the link between the U.S. deficits and the global savings-investment equilibrium. They find that the U.S. deficit is likely to be even larger than officially reported and that policymakers do not seem willing to undertake the necessary policy adjustments to reduce it. Nevertheless, a reduction in the global supply of savings may force an increase in global interest rates and thus a slowdown in U.S. domestic demand--thus initiating a gradual reduction in deficits. The authors argue that a key responsibility of U.S. policymakers is to allow this process to happen, thereby avoiding the risk of a disruptive adjustment later.
This study analyses the allocation of power in the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) as it enlarges to accommodate new members of the economic and monetary union. For this purpose, classical power indices that have their origin in solutions of cooperative games are applied. First, an assessment is made of the effects of enlargement on the voting power of different subgroups of the Governing Council that arise in the wake of the continuous accession process. Second, a systematic comparison is carried out of the status quo role ('one member, one vote') with respect to the voting power of the ECB Executive Board and to the representativeness of European monetary policy, along with the potential for its re-nationalisation.
The Eastern Enlargement of the EU will not be complete until the new member states join the EMU. Economic and political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of new member states. Failure to do so will create a two speed Europe, a fundamental change in the economic and political architecture of the EU, adding to the strains already evident between core and peripheral countries. Current high level of trade and business cycle integration of new member states with the Eurozone, decreases the probability of asymmetric shocks. Lower transaction costs, elimination of exchange rate risk and the danger of currency crises, further trade and investment creation, lower interest rates and large fiscal gains, should outweigh the loss of the exchange rate as adjustment tool. The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone provides comprehensive economic analysis of theoretical, empirical and political issues that will determine whether EMU enlargement is a success, which has implications for all common currency systems.
"This is the seventh annual report issued by the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group since it was reconstituted at the start of economic and monetary union in 1999. This distinguished group of economists argues that a combination of slow growth, inadequate policy responses and newly emerging intra-area divergences are putting EMU at risk. Against this background, the MPG recommends that the ECB should downgrade its short-term concern about cyclical economic developments and pursue a monetary policy aimed at preserving the value of the euro in the long-term. Moreover, it urges the core countries to urgently return to fiscal discipline, both in their own interest and to set an example that would allow them to exert pressure on potential soft currency countries to do the same."--CEPS website.
This book provides an original and wide-ranging analysis of the impact of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on economic governance in the EU and in several key Member States within and outside the Euro area. Its emphasis is on adaptation: how EMU encourages change in national and EU institutions and in national economic regimes. It brings together economic, political science and legal perspectives to explain how national economies adapted, the dynamics of policy-making and the complex web of laws, processes and actors in the EMU.