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Our Continent, Our Future presents the emerging African perspective on this complex issue. The authors use as background their own extensive experience and a collection of 30 individual studies, 25 of which were from African economists, to summarize this African perspective and articulate a path for the future. They underscore the need to be sensitive to each country's unique history and current condition. They argue for a broader policy agenda and for a much more active role for the state within what is largely a market economy. Finally, they stress that Africa must, and can, compete in an increasingly globalized world and, perhaps most importantly, that Africans must assume the leading role in defining the continent's development agenda.
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.
Macroeconomic policy and sequencing issues increasingly have been addressed explicitly in the design of recent adjustment loans, but there still is scope for: (1) strengthening the analytical framework and macroeconomic policy conditionality in adjustment loans, and (2) greater realism about the time and external resources needed to achieve adjustment and growth objectives.
Over the past year, developing countries have started to recover from the 1997-99 global financial crisis. The elements underlying the recovery: strong industrial country growth, robust global trade, and firming commodity prices, should permit more 'self-financing' and more sustainable growth in developing countries than has been the case following previous crises. International capital market flows, however, remain selective and volatile. This publication provides a comprehensive look at external debt and financial flows to developing countries. Volume one examines these developments in detail and charts the prospects for private and public global development finance. It explores the special risks and benefits of short-term capital flows, reviews policy options for countries to safeguard against the volatility of private capital flows, and draws lessons from the past century's booms and busts in private flows to emerging markets. It also reviews debt-structuring agreements and privatisation transactions and contains summary data for country groups. Volume two provides statistical data for 137 countries reporting debt under the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. The country tables present a wealth of information about each country's external debt and cover major economic aggregates and key debt ratios. Data is also provided on debt service paid, average terms of new commitments, currency composition of long-term debt, debt restructuring, and scheduled debt service projections. To facilitate cross-country comparisons of key statistics, summary statistical tables are provided for regional and income groups. This publication is available on a Windows-based CD-ROM that contains all the time-series data from the World Bank Debtor Reporting System, allowing users to graph, map, and extract the data in many formats; as well as the contents of both volumes in searchable page format.

Canada

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Published: 2019-06-24

Total Pages: 85


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This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
This study provides a systematic approach to the key dimensions of analysis in support of policy-based operations. Concepts presented include understanding the macroeconomic context of sector policy reforms using a macro-meso-micro perspective, using dimensions of sector diagnosis to identify sequential binding constraints to development in a prevailing policy and institutional environment, and assessing the effects of policy change. Also included are examples of measuring the costs of policy change and lessons from incorporating policy change assessments into policy operation design.
This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.