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The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures-rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits-with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.
The example of Lithuania shows, that using hitherto existing interpretation of inflation criterion in the EU of 27 members has distinct implications for the expansion of the euro area. In the comming years, structural factors, related to the process of catching-up with highly developed European economies, will have significant influence on the inflation rate in the new EU member states from Central Eastern Europe. Since the inception of the euro area, the reference value of the inflation criterion is determined both by the single ECB monetary policy as well as by independent monetary policies of the EU member states outside the euro area. In the enlarged EU this results in a growing divergence between the reference value of the inflation criterion and the euro area inflation rate. The article indicates proposals of changes which would better allow for taking into consideration the dynamics of monetary integration within the EU, yet would not require changes of the Treaty provisions.
Thesis (M.A.) from the year 2003 in the subject Politics - Topic: European Union, grade: 2 (B), University of Hamburg (European College, Hamburg), language: English, abstract: After a decade of transition from communist regime with centrally planned economic system to democratic society with market economy and after several years of negotiations on the European Union membership, ten candidate countries from Central and Eastern Europe signed the accession treaties at summit in Athen in April 2003. If they conduct public referenda successfully and the present members states complete the ratification, they will become members states in May 2004. The membership in the European Union implies the prospect of eventual membership in the Economic and Monetary Union. The consequent question is: when exactly should they join? According to the Maastricht Treaty, in order to become members of monetary union, new members have to fulfil the convergence criteria. As academic and policy discussions show, from the perspective of monetary policy and economic reasoning, this question, so far, has no clear answer. Politically, the majority of new members already expressed the intention to fulfil the Maastricht criteria as soon as possible and to join between 2006 and 2008. The officials of the European Union and the European Central Bank prefer a later entry date or tend to be neutral on the issue. Further popular opinion recommends waiting until the euro area consolidates its own monetary policy mechanism. Among economists, the timing of the eastern enlargement of monetary union is a controversial issue as well. Some argue the nominal convergence set by the Maastricht Treaty to be far from sufficient to form a monetary union with less developed economies. As long as the real convergence in terms of prosperity, functioning institutions or reaction of economy to economic shocks, is not achieved, a common monetary policy stays undesirable. Opposition to these arguments points out that the inclusion of peripheral members of the European Union with characteristic similar to new members, so far, had no negative effects for those countries or for the monetary union. Others oppose the eager ambition of an early accession to the euro area, because economies of candidate countries members need a different monetary policy, while catching-up the present members. They stress some of the Maastricht criteria to be contradictory to the catching-up process and advise to accept the higher inflation rates leading to real appreciation of exchange rates. [...]
The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring high-inflation EU countries in line with low-inflation countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures - rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits - with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.
"Real convergence has gained substantial momentum in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe. Countries in these regions are all involved in the European integration process, either as recently joined EU member states, candidate countries, or potential candidates for membership. It has therefore become increasingly important to consider methods of catching up, to explore cross-country differences and to review key policy challenges for the convergence process. Through considering these issues in detail, prospects for future adoption of the euro can also be assessed. This book brings together policymakers, high-level practitioners, academics, and experts from central banks and international institutions in order to explore the key policy challenges facing the convergence process. Contributions focus especially on inflation, growth, migration and the balance of payments. This book is an essential read for all scholars interested in the transition of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, and in the process of EU integration and enlargement."--Book cover.
Master's Thesis from the year 2002 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1.0 (A), Technical University of Berlin (-), 54 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: A rough 50 years after its foundation, the European Union (EU) is preparing for the probably most ambitious challenge of its existence, the binding-back into the West of the once centrally-planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC). Together with political and general economic efforts, European monetary integration also gains speed with as many as twelve CEEC queuing up for entry into the EU (not including Turkey, which has not yet officially begun entry negotiations), the first of them most likely joining the Union already two years after the physical introduction of the single currency, i.e. in 2004. Many of these countries are eager to also join Monetary Union (EMU) and show their ability to be ′good Europeans′ by adopting the Euro as soon as possible. Various statements by both CEEC-government officials and monetary authorities exemplify this very vividly. This implies that the enlargement of EMU is already a relevant issue. By the time it becomes acute, positions and perspectives of both applicants and current members should be clear, if unnecessary delays and political irritations are to be avoided. The body of literature on the subject is thus as large as the questions of when, how and on what terms CEEC-accession will take place are pressing, and becoming more so as time progresses. This study attempts to coherently examine the core issues related to EMU-enlargement, equally synthesising the various segmented approaches of the academic debate, and deduce normative conclusions as to what strategic outlook should seem appropriate to both CEEC and the current EMU-12: In what timeframe should accession most sensibly take place? How appropriate are the mechanics leading up to EMU, most prominently the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) and the Maastr
According to the Maastricht Treaty, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have an inflation rate in excess of 1.5 per cent plus the average inflation rates in the three 'best performing' EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non-increasing function of the number of EU members. A counterfactual analysis of historical data shows that the effect of enlarging the EU from 15 to 27 countries was sizeable in 2002-04 and again from 2007. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the inflation reference value by 0.15-0.2 percentage points on average, but there is a considerable probability of a larger reduction at any given moment of time. The treatment of countries with negative inflation rates in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results.
This text sets out to analyse the implications of the process of enlargement in the EU state and examines which criteria is likely to be used in deciding whether countries are ready to join. It also looks at the potential consequences of growth.