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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
This annual publication provides details of taxes paid on wages in OECD countries. It covers personal income taxes and social security contributions paid by employees, social security contributions and payroll taxes paid by employers, and cash benefits received by workers. Taxing Wages 2021 includes a special feature entitled: “Impact of COVID-19 on the Tax Wedge in OECD Countries”.
In recent years the level of taxation of many developing countries has changed dramatically over relatively short periods. These changes are too large and too sudden to attribute fully to a deterioration in tax administration or to changes in the traditional determinants of tax levels. The paper argues that they should be attributed mostly to macroeconomic policies. The paper discusses the connection between tax levels and (a) the real value of the official exchange rate, (b) import substitution policies, (c) trade liberalization, (d) inflation, (e) public debt, (f) financial policies. The paper concludes that more attention should be paid to those relationships and that tax reform should aim at neutralizing some of these effects.
This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
Although accommodative policies and widespread indexation may account for the persistence of high inflation, they cannot explain changes in the inflation rate. The causes of such changes for the high-inflation episodes immediately preceding the recent “heterodox” attempts at stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel are examined by computing historical decompositions of these episodes based on vector autoregressions, distinguishing between the “fiscal” and “balance of payments” views of their causes. In all three cases, nominal exchange rate shocks played the dominant role in triggering an acceleration of inflation. [JEL 134]
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
The book deals with aspects of the recent fiscal crisis in developing countries. Macro aspects cover theoretical underpinning of fiscal policy, the size of the required adjustment and the link between internal and external transfers. Micro aspects cover the relation between private and public investment, the experience of tax and expenditure reforms, and the impact of fiscal adjustment on the poor.
There is no magic formula for balancing fiscal policy and economic performance. As a scholar and policy advisor, Vito Tanzi has made a major contribution to identifying links between public finance and macro and microeconomic consequences. His findings bear relevance in both developing and industrialized economies. The essays in this volume and its companion, Fiscal Policy and Economic Reform, highlight many of these interconnected issues, for instance: * the interaction between budgetary policy and economic aggregates, such as employment, inflation and growth * the implication of economic linkages for designing fiscal policies * expenditure policies and alternative deficit financing strategies * the trade-offs between macro- and microeconomic objectives The list of contributors includes Max Corden, John Makin, Ronald McKinnon and Richard Musgrave.