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Master's Thesis from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: Great Distinction, University of Antwerp (Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB)), language: English, abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between foreign aid and government fiscal behavior. An overview of the global trend of foreign aid flows over the last few decades is provided, as well as literature and research on fiscal response studies that have aimed to examine how these aid flows influence the fiscal decisions of aid recipient governments. The paper assesses the impact of foreign aid flows on fiscal aggregates, taking into focus the case of Zambia. In particular, the paper goes into detail examining how government investment, consumption, revenue, and domestic borrowing are associated with both aggregated and disaggregated aid. The paper adopts a quantitative approach in its analysis. A Vector Error Correction approach was used to estimate the relationship between foreign aid and fiscal aggregates data for Zambia over the period 1970-2014. The econometric estimation used annual data and analyzed both short-run and long-run effects. The following were the findings: Foreign aid flows were found to be positively associated with government investment, consumption, and domestic borrowing. While government revenue was negatively associated with foreign aid. In the short-run, it was observed that grants were used to reduce the level of the country’s domestic debt stock. Whereas, net foreign loans were seen as a substitute for domestic revenues and were used to finance the budget deficit. The paper concluded by providing a number of recommendations that suggested improvement in government’s revenue mobilization efforts, effective management of the country’s domestic debt, and the deliberate action to direct revenue resources towards investment expenditure. In order to achieve sustained growth and ensure the effective use of aid, donor partners were recognized as important actors in supporting the government’s fiscal policy direction. There has been high momentum in the scaling up of foreign aid in recent years. The turn of the millennium saw calls by the development community to increase foreign aid to developing countries so as to assist them in attaining the Millennium Development Goals. The mechanisms through which foreign aid flows are transmitted to recipient countries require that the aid resources are channeled through the government. Thus, for foreign aid to have any meaningful impact is highly dependent on how governments respond to inflows of aid.
This paper examines the fiscal impact of aid inflow into Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1975-2005. The empirical findings reveal that inflow of foreign aid influences public decision on revenue and expenditure patterns. The result shows that a larger proportion of aid is allocated to capital expenditure and that only a small proportion goes to recurrent expenditure. There is a strong positive association between aid inflow and capital expenditure. The finding also shows that, while a very weak negative association exists between aid and taxation effort, aid and borrowing are used as alternative source of finance.
May 1996 Using a model of aid fungibility, the authors examine the relationship between foreign aid and public spending. Based on a panel of cross-country and time-series data, their results show that roughly 75 cents of every dollar given in net development assistance goes to current spending and 25 cents to capital spending in the recipient countries. But concessionary loans - a component of development assistance - stimulate far more government spending. Their results also show that aid increases both public and private investment. To test aid fungibility across both public spending categories, they use a newly constructed data series on the net disbursement of concessionary loans. They find that concessionary loans given to the transport and communication sector are fully nonfungible. But loans to the energy sector are converted into fungible monies and part of the funds leak into transport and communications. Loans to agriculture and education are also fungible. There is no evidence of concessionary funds being diverted for military purposes. Their results show that total public spending in the health sector has no impact on reducing infant mortality, but concessionary loans to the health sector do. This finding leads the authors to conclude that linking foreign aid to an agreed-upon public spending program in areas critical to development might be an effective way to transfer resources to developing countries.
Foreign aid is a sizable source of government financing for several developing countries and its allocation matters for the conduct of fiscal policy. This paper revisits fiscal effects of shifts in aid dependency in 59 developing countries from 1960 to 2010. It identifies structural shifts in aid dependency: upward shifts (structural increases in aid inflows) and downward shifts (structural decreases in aid inflows). These shifts are treated as shocks in aid dependency and treatment effect methods are used to assess the fiscal effects of aid. It finds that shifts in aid dependency are frequent and have significant fiscal effects. In addition to traditional evidence of tax displacement and “aid illusion,” we show that upward shifts and downward shifts in aid dependency have asymmetric effects on the fiscal accounts. Large aid inflows undermine tax capacity and public investment while large reductions in aid inflows tend to keep recipients’ tax and expenditure ratios unchanged. Moreover, the tax displacement effects tend to be temporary while the impact on expenditure items are persistent. Finally, we find that the undesirable fiscal effects of aid are more pronounced in countries with low governance scores and low absorptive capacity, as well as those with IMF-supported programs.
A response to the pressing need to address and clarify the substantial ambiguity within current literature, this edited volume aims to deepen readers’ understanding of the impact of foreign aid on development outcomes based on the latest findings in research over the past decade. Foreign aid has long been seen as one of two extremes: either beneficial or damaging, a blessing or a curse. Consequently, many readers perceive aid’s effectiveness based on the work of scholars who are assessing the impact of aid from one of two antithetical perspectives. This book takes a different approach, shedding light on recent research that can deepen our understanding of the complex relationship between aid and its aftereffects. Drawing from an extensive set of studies that have explored micro and macro impacts of foreign aid for recipient nations, chapter authors highlight more layered and nuanced findings, with a focus on donor characteristics, political motives, and an evaluation of aid projects and their effectiveness, including the differential impact based on type of aid. This volume is the first of its kind to unpack aid as a complex rather than a unitary concept and explore the wide areas of grey that have long enshrouded foreign aid.
Abstract: The inflow of large quantities of foreign aid into Rwanda since 1994 can have potential adverse effects such as aid dependency via a significant negative effect on tax efforts and on public investments. This paper carries out a theoretical and empirical study to examine these issues. The theoretical part develops a model in which the recipient government decides on the optimal level of tax and optimally allocates total government revenue between current expenditure and public investment. The theoretical model makes it possible to empirically test whether an increase in aid is likely to reduce the optimal tax rate and the proportion of public expenditure allocated to public investment. The econometric analysis uses time series data on Rwanda to show, in line with other studies in the literature, a negative relationship between increased aid and the tax rate; but the magnitude of the effects are extremely small. In the case of Rwanda, reforms to the tax administration and expansion of the tax base have had mitigating effects. As far as the effect on public investment, the overall effect was negative in the past; however, since 1995 the direction of this effect has changed.
Scientific Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - Miscellaneous, , language: English, abstract: The issue behind the effectiveness of external finance has been studied from diverse perspectives. The question of whether external finance assists poor nations to develop in a sustained manner is still mired in controversy. Development assistance may be given to governments; but the effectiveness will crucially rely on their fiscal response. The relationship between the fiscal activities of the government and foreign aid is however, not straight forward, for the reason that some part of the development assistance is fungible. The preponderance proof from empirical literature on the effectiveness of aid proposes that external finance has not had a noteworthy influence on growth in most receiving nations. However, there are some proofs that external finance has had some significant impacts on development in most conducive policy climates. Most of the evidence concerning the correlation between aid and the key channels via which its influence on growth could flow on domestic saving and investment is mixed. This is because some indication shows that aid has had significant influence on investment and domestic saving in nations where adjustment efforts have been sustained.
Assessing Aid determines that the effectiveness of aid is not decided by the amount received but rather the institutional and policy environment into which it is accepted. It examines how development assistance can be more effective at reducing global poverty and gives five mainrecommendations for making aid more effective: targeting financial aid to poor countries with good policies and strong economic management; providing policy-based aid to demonstrated reformers; using simpler instruments to transfer resources to countries with sound management; focusing projects oncreating and transmitting knowledge and capacity; and rethinking the internal incentives of aid agencies.