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The Impact of International Economic Disturbances on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe: Transmission and Response focuses on the transmission of economic disturbances to the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, as well as the policy responses of both to such disturbances. Topics covered include external inflation, balance of trade, and resource allocation, along with the impact of the world economic crisis on intra-CMEA trade. This book is comprised of 16 chapters and begins with an overview of major international economic disturbances during the first half of the 1970s and their transmission to the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries. The following chapters examine the adjustment made by East European economies to external disturbances; external inflation, balance of trade, and resource allocation in small centrally planned economies; whether the Soviet Union was affected by the international economic disturbances of the 1970s; and the relationship between foreign trade and the Soviet economy. The transmission of international disturbances to Yugoslavia, Hungary, and Poland and the responses of each country are also discussed. The final chapter assesses how the energy crisis and Western ""stagflation"" have affected the nature of Soviet-East European political relations in the years 1956-1973. This monograph will be of interest to economists and economic policymakers.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.