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This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of temporary business tax cuts. First, the analysis extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary tax cut financed by a future tax-increase has no real effect if the tax is lump-sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, it shows that in the presence of financing frictions which raise the cost of investment, the policy temporarily relaxes the financing constraint thereby reducing the marginal cost of investment. This direct effect implies positive marginal propensities to invest out of tax cuts. Third, when the tax is distortionary, the expectation of high future tax rates reduces the expected marginal return on investment mitigating the direct stimulative effects.
This paper constructs an intertemporal general equilibrium model designed to examine an economy in transition from central planning to being market oriented. A numerical algorithm is developed to obtain a solution for the model. Simulations using stylized country-specific data examine the effects of price controls during the transition period, as well as of imposing taxes on returns to investment, and on interest earned on private savings. The paper concludes that, under certain circumstances, the taxation of investment as well as of private savings may have positive effects upon consumer welfare, if price distortions are sufficiently severe.
This paper develops and calibrates a simple general equilibrium model with two types of labor and capital for the French economy. The simulation results indicate that targeted reductions in employer social security taxes have six times as large an effect on employment as untargeted reductions for equal initial budgetary cost, while employee social security tax reductions have a negative effect on employment. They also point to the presence of “self-financing,” whereby reductions in various tax rates lead to lower budget deficits in the long run, as a result of an expanding tax base and lower unemployment insurance outlays.1
This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.
This paper traces the effects of an appreciation of the deutsche mark with the help of a computable general equilibrium model under alternative structural policy scenarios. In the first scenario, characterized by severe structural rigidities, the contractionary effects of exchange rate appreciation dominate the expansionary effects so that GDP and employment fall and the external surplus declines only little. In the alternative (and polar opposite) case of free movement of goods, services, and factors, the expansionary effects of the appreciation become more prominent as supply and demand respond much more readily to the relative price changes.
This paper develops a methodology in integrating the information from a micro-unit data file of tax returns into the framework of a general equilibrium model of taxation with endogenous financial behavior. It discusses how the available information on capital income flows can be used to impute portfolios to households, and how these portfolios and the other observed characteristics of the households can be made consistent with expected utility maximization. In order to illustrate the value of this methodology, it is applied to a study of the general equilibrium impact of instituting a flat-rate income tax system. The analysis reveals that there would be substantial changes in the pattern of rates of return and the distribution of asset ownership.The sectoral allocation of capital does not, though, change substantially. The micro-unit data base shows that, in general, lower-income households are worse off and the higher-income households are better off, although there is substantial dispersion of welfare change within income groups. Because these results rest on a very simple model of the economy and a particular data imputation procedure and parameterization, they should not be taken literally as a guide to policy decisions. Nevertheless, they do indicate that substantial insight can be provided by integrating micro-unit data with general equilibrium tax modeling