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This study examines seven recent civil and international conflicts, including the Gulf War, the struggle for independence in Kashmir, the civil wars in the Sudan and Mozambique, Indonesia's invasion of East Timor, and the guerilla war in Peru. The contributors describe the price of conflict not only in terms of deaths and injuries, but also in terms of social, economic and environmental consequences. They ask who, if anyone, really benefits from conflict. They also explore the impact of these conflicts on the Western world, and current approaches to conflict management and prevention.
This Handbook brings together contributions from leading scholars who take an economic perspective to study peace and conflict. Some chapters are largely empirical, exploring the correlates and quantifying the costs of conflict. Others are more theoretical, examining the mechanisms that lead to war or are more conducive to peace.
This paper investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. Our analysis rests on two different strategies. First, we use a combination of other regions to construct a "synthetic" control region which resembles many relevant economic characteristics of the Basque Country before the outset of political terrorism in the 1970's. The subsequent economic evolution of this "counterfactual" Basque Country without terrorism is compared to the actual experience of the Basque Country. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percent points relative to the synthetic control region. Moreover, this gap seemed to widen in response to spikes in terrorist activity. The second part of this study uses the truce declared in September 1998 as a natural experiment to estimate the effects of the conflict. If the terrorist conflict was perceived to have a negative impact on the Basque economy, stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country should have shown a positive relative performance as the truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire. We find evidence that is consistent with this conjecture using event study methods.
Provides comprehensive, up-to-date coverage of the key themes and principles of conflict economics.
While COVID-19 is reshaping our lives, this must-read book for 2021 provides some of the answers to our most pressing global challenges. Unless the world is basically peaceful, we will never get the trust, cooperation and inclusiveness to solve these issues, yet what creates peace is poorly understood. Working on an aid program in one of the most violent places in the world, North East Kivu in the DR Congo, philanthropist and business leader Steve Killelea asked himself, ‘What are the most peaceful nations?’ Unable to find an answer, he created the world’s leading measure of peace, the Global Peace Index, which receives over 16 billion media impressions annually and has become the definitive go to index for heads of state. Steve Killelea then went on to establish world-renowned think tank, the Institute for Economics and Peace. Today its work is used by organisations such as the World Bank, United Nations and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and taught in thousands of university courses around the world. Peace in the Age of Chaos tells of Steve’s personal journey to measure and understand peace. It explores the practical application of his work, which is gathering momentum at a rapid pace. In this time when we are faced with environmental, social and economic challenges, this book shows us a way forward where Positive Peace, described as creating the optimal environment for human potential to flourish, can lead to a paradigm shift in the ways societies can be managed, making them more resilient and better capable of adapting to their changing environments.
For much of the past century, the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians has been a defining feature of the Middle East. Despite billions of dollars expended to support, oppose, or seek to resolve it, the conflict has endured for decades, with periodic violent eruptions, of which the Israel-Gaza confrontation in the summer of 2014 is only the most recent. This executive summary highlights findings from a study by a team of RAND researchers that estimates the net costs and benefits over the next ten years of five alternative trajectories a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance, and violent uprising compared with the costs and benefits of a continuing impasse that evolves in accordance with present trends. The analysis focuses on economic costs related to the conflict, including the economic costs of security. In addition, intangible costs are briefly examined, and the costs of each scenario to the international community have been calculated. The study's focus emerged from an extensive scoping exercise designed to identify how RAND's objective, fact-based approach might promote fruitful policy discussion. The overarching goal is to give all parties comprehensive, reliable information about available choices and their expected costs and consequences. Seven key findings were identified: A two-state solution provides by far the best economic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis would gain over two times more than the Palestinians in absolute terms $123 billion versus $50 billion over ten years. But the Palestinians would gain more proportionately, with average per capita income increasing by approximately 36 percent over what it would have been in 2024, versus 5 percent for the average Israeli. A return to violence would have profoundly negative economic consequences for both Palestinians and Israelis; per capita gross domestic product would fall by 46 percent in the West Bank and Gaza and by 10 percent in Israel by 2024. In most scenarios, the value of economic opportunities gained or lost by both parties is much larger than expected changes in direct costs. Unilateral withdrawal by Israel from the West Bank would impose large economic costs on Israelis unless the international community shoulders a substantial portion of the costs of relocating settlers. Intangible factors, such as each party's security and sovereignty aspirations, are critical considerations in understanding and resolving the impasse. Taking advantage of the economic opportunities of a two-state solution would require substantial investments from the public and private sectors of the international community and from both parties.--
A novel approach is presented for estimating the economic costs of conflict, in which the production network serves a first-order mechanism through which the disruptive effect of localized conflict spreads to firms in peaceful areas. The method is applied to the Maoist insurgency in Eastern India during the period 2000-2009. We document the negative impact of conflict on firms' behavior, which spreads to firms in peaceful areas through input-output connections. We then apply a model of production networks in order to quantify the overall impact of conflict by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the Maoist insurgency results in an average aggregate output loss of 3.8 billion USD per year. Interestingly, 73% of the loss is explained by network propagation.
Reveals massive expenses associated with the Iraq War in a cautionary account that evaluates the war's long-term costs, both financial and human, as well as their consequences to taxpayers.
The long wars in Iraq & Afghanistan have cost the U.S. in many ways. For the U.S. mil., the human toll has been profound. The damage to our internat. reputation has been severe. And the full econ. costs of the war to the Amer. taxpayers & the overall U.S. economy go well beyond even the immense fed. budget costs. The ¿hidden costs¿ of the Iraq war include: the ongoing drain on U.S. econ. growth created by Iraq-related borrowing, the disruptive effects of the conflict on world oil markets, the future care of our injured vets, repair costs for the mil., & other undisclosed costs. This report estimates the total costs of the long war in Iraq to the Amer. economy as a whole. A change in course would bring substantial econ. savings to our country. Illus.
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.