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Intelligence is, by definition, a shadowy business. Yet many aspects of this secret world are now more openly analyzed and discussed, a trend which has inevitably prompted lively debate about intelligence gathering and analysis: what should be allowed? What boundaries, if any, should be drawn? And what changes and challenges lie ahead for intelligence activities and agencies? In this compelling book, leading intelligence scholar Mark Lowenthal explores the future of intelligence. There are, he argues, three broad areas – information technology and intelligence collection; analysis; and governance – that indicate the potential for rather dramatic change in the world of intelligence. But whether these important vectors for change will improve how intelligence works or make it more difficult remains to be seen. The only certainty is that intelligence will remain an essential feature of statecraft in our increasingly dangerous world. Drawing on the author's forty years' experience in U.S. intelligence, The Future of Intelligence offers a broad and authoritative starting point for the ongoing debate about what intelligence could be and how it may function in the years ahead.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
A series of investigations, especially in the United States and Britain, have focused attention on the performance of national intelligence services. At the same time, the onset of an era of terrorism and a broad span of trans-national security challenges has highlighted the crucial role of intelligence. This book takes stock of the underlying intellectual sub-structure of intelligence. For intelligence as for other areas of policy, serious intellectual inquiry is the basis for improving the performance of real-world institutions. The volume explores intelligence from an intellectual perspective, not an organizational one. Instead the aim of the book is to identity themes that run through these applications, such as the lack of comprehensive theories, the unclear relations between providers and users of intelligence, and the predominance of bureaucratic organizations driven by collection. A key element is the development, or rather non-development, of intelligence toward an established set of methods and standards and, above all, an ongoing scientific discourse. Here, in the transformation from an experience-based proto-science to a science of intelligence in-being, the book argues, lies perhaps the most fundamental challenge for a field of immense impact on the international community, on nations, and on individuals.
This volume examines the role of technology in gathering, assimilating and utilizing intelligence information through the ages. Pushing the boundaries of existing works, the articles contained here take a broad view of the use and implementation of technology and intelligence procedures during the cold war era and the space race, the September 2011 attacks, and more recent cyber operations. It looks at the development of different technologies, procedural implications thereof, and the underlying legal and ethical implications. The findings are then used to explore the future trends in technology including cyber operations, big data, open source intelligence, smart cities, and augmented reality. Starting from the core aspects of technical capabilities the articles dig deeper, exploring the hard and soft infrastructure of intelligence gathering procedures and focusing on the human and bureaucratic procedures involved therein. Technology and innovation have played an important role in determining the course of development of the intelligence community. Intelligence gathering for national security, however, is not limited only to the thread of technical capabilities but is a complex fabric of organizational structures, systemic undercurrents, and the role of personnel in key positions of decision making. The book’s findings and conclusions encompass not just temporal variation but also cut across a diverse set of issue areas. This compilation is uniquely placed in the interdisciplinary space combining the lessons from key cases in the past to current developments and implementation of technology options.
Using espionage as a test case, The End of Intelligence criticizes claims that the recent information revolution has weakened the state, revolutionized warfare, and changed the balance of power between states and non-state actors—and it assesses the potential for realizing any hopes we might have for reforming intelligence and espionage. Examining espionage, counterintelligence, and covert action, the book argues that, contrary to prevailing views, the information revolution is increasing the power of states relative to non-state actors and threatening privacy more than secrecy. Arguing that intelligence organizations may be taken as the paradigmatic organizations of the information age, author David Tucker shows the limits of information gathering and analysis even in these organizations, where failures at self-knowledge point to broader limits on human knowledge—even in our supposed age of transparency. He argues that, in this complex context, both intuitive judgment and morality remain as important as ever and undervalued by those arguing for the transformative effects of information. This book will challenge what we think we know about the power of information and the state, and about the likely twenty-first century fate of secrecy and privacy.
HR Without People? is a stimulating and confrontational challenge to conventional thinking on this people-centric profession’s role in the future of work.
Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology have opened up new markets and new opportunities for progress in critical areas such as health, education, energy, and the environment. In recent years, machines have surpassed humans in the performance of certain specific tasks, such as some aspects of image recognition. Experts forecast that rapid progress in the field of specialized artificial intelligence will continue. Although it is very unlikely that machines will exhibit broadly-applicable intelligence comparable to or exceeding that of humans in the next 20 years, it is to be expected that machines will reach and exceed human performance on more and more tasks. As a contribution toward preparing the United States for a future in which AI plays a growing role, this report surveys the current state of AI, its existing and potential applications, and the questions that are raised for society and public policy by progress in AI. The report also makes recommendations for specific further actions by Federal agencies and other actors.
Enhancing Enterprise Intelligence: Leveraging ERP, CRM, SCM, PLM, BPM, and BI takes a fresh look at the benefits of enterprise systems (ES), focusing on the fact that ES collectively contribute to enhancing the intelligence quotient of an enterprise. The book provides an overview of the characteristic domains (i.e., business functions, processes, a