Larry M. Wortzel
Published: 1999-12-31
Total Pages: 358
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The debate about China and Taiwan is re-emerging in the United States. The accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, of course, put on the front burner the way that nationalistic fervor has grown in China, at least some of it as a result of manipulation by the Communist Party. President Lee Teng-hui's comments about state to-state relations between Taiwan and the mainland raised the temperature of relations across the strait and among the three concerned parties (China, the United States, and Taiwan). China threatened, China postured, and China ran political campaigns against the United States and Lee. But the questions of military capability, security policy, and intent are rarely treated seriously. This book is a serious look at the armed forces of China and how they will evolve. The chapters in this volume were developed from papers prepared for the eighth in a series of conferences on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The people at the conferences were recognized experts on armed forces and security matters in China and drawn from academe, government, the military, and policy think tanks. Each chapter's author was challenged to analyze some aspect of the Chinese armed forces as they moved into the next century. The goal was to contribute a realistic view of how domestic and international pressures would shape both Beijing's and Taipei's security environment. Over a 2-day period at Wye Plantation, Maryland, each paper was discussed and criticized by a wider body of participants and then revised for publication. Not surprisingly, when a body of experts of such high caliber is assembled and dialogue flows freely, comments by participants at the conference led to the development of two more papers. The first, addressing strategic geography from Michael McDevitt, appears as Chapter 1. The second from Ellis Joffe, summarizing changes in party-army relations in China, appears as Chapter 8. The result is a highly readable and relevant publication applicable to today's politico-military environment. One of the participants in this series of annual conferences on the PLA refers to the event as an "azimuth check of trends and ideas in the community of China watchers." To anyone who has had to navigate the land, sea, or air by compass, the meaning of this analogy will be instantly clear. It is difficult to move through uncharted areas, where conditions change often and in unpredictable ways, attempting to reach a common goal or objective with others. This goal is even more difficult to reach because we all travel on different intellectual paths. Therefore, from time to time it is useful and necessary to confirm one's course. This set of conferences served that purpose. In the context of the PLA conferences held over the years, the common objective is a realistic appreciation of the policies, power, and operational dimensions and limitations of the PLA. The majority of the participants in this effort came from the United States, but all of them come from democracies with important security interests in China and Asia. Thus, the other common goal shared by the participants is a strong desire to ensure that the security of their own nation is not adversely affected by events in China.