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A study of how China’s changing economy may leave its rural communities in the dust and launch a political and economic disaster. As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern. China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere. In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike. Praise for Invisible China “Stunningly researched.” —TheEconomist, Best Books of the Year (UK) “Invisible China sounds a wake-up call.” —The Strategist “Not to be missed.” —Times Literary Supplement (UK) “[Invisible China] provides an extensive coverage of problems for China in the sphere of human capital development . . . the book is rich in content and is not constrained only to China, but provides important parallels with past and present developments in other countries.” —Journal of Chinese Political Science
Ambassador John H. Holdridge provides a fascinating insider's account of the complex and often arduous process of normalizing diplomatic relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China after three decades of mutual hostility. More than a memoir, Crossing the Divide illuminates the broad sweep of U.S.-China relations after World War II. With eloquence and profound insight, Holdridge describes the enormity of the divide between the two countries, summarizes the broad range of impediments to establishing and maintaining diplomatic relations, and demonstrates the significance of continuing efforts by both countries to overcome these obstacles. A book in the ADST-DACOR Diplomats and Diplomacy Series.
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
This book examines US subnational engagement in foreign relations, or paradiplomacy, with China and Taiwan from 1949 to 2020. As an alternative diplomatic history of the United States’ relations with divided China, it offers an in-depth chronological and thematic discussion of state and local communities’ responses to the China-Taiwan sovereignty conflict and their impact on US diplomacy. The book explains why paradiplomacy matters not only in the ‘low politics’ of economic and cultural cooperation, but also in the ‘high politics’ of diplomatic recognition. Presenting case studies of US states and cities developing policies towards divided China that paralleled, clashed or aligned with those pursued by federal agencies, it also identifies Chinese and Taiwanese objectives and strategies deployed when competing for US subnational ties. Conceptually, the book builds upon Constructivism, redefining paradiplomacy as an institutional fact, reflective of subnational identities and interests, rather than as a subnational pursuit of foreign markets, driven by objective economic forces. Featuring new empirical evidence and a novel conceptual framework for paradiplomacy, The United States’ Subnational Relations with Divided China will be a useful resource for students and scholars of US foreign policy, the politics of China and Taiwan, paradiplomacy and international relations.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
Understanding China's world role has become one of the crucial intellectual challenges of the 21st Century. This book explores this topic through the adoption of three conceptual approaches that help to uncover some of the complex and simultaneous interactions between the global and domestic forces that determine China's external behavior.
The oneness of China is the norm. Periods of divisions are aberrations. This is how Chinese thinkers, leaders and ultimately the majority of Chinese people have regarded Chinese politics and history for more than 2,000 years. The oneness was never perfect. As long as certain minimal conditions were met and the polity which proclaimed that oneness was widely acknowledged, that was enough. Chinese ruling elites adopted this pragmatic approach so they could ensure that the ideal could always approximate ChinaOCOs reality. This is a revised edition of a study undertaken to explain what happened during one of the worst periods of division in Chinese history. What were the key factors that helped the centripetal forces to get back to the imperial norm? It begins with the final stage of decline of the Tang dynasty (618OCo907) and ends 50 years later when it became clear that the foundations for a last push towards unification were in place."
An insightful examination of the changing relationship between Asia and the United States In this lucidly written and thought-provoking book, author Simon Tay highlights the accelerating trends that point to Asia increasingly forging its own path, independent of the United States. He also describes the fundamental changes and new policy directions needed to maintain and strengthen the bonds between Asia and the United States that have been beneficial to both since the end of the Second World War. On the eve of the global financial crisis of 2008, the economies of the United States and its Asian partners were deeply interdependent. But the different approaches taken to the crisis by Asian and Western leaders point to a new separation that may have negative consequences for the economies and businesses of both regions. To avoid a dangerous divide that may make us all the poorer, Tay reveals what leaders, policy-makers, companies, and citizens can do to find a balance that enriches us all. Written by a leading public intellectual CNN's Fareed Zakaria describes as "one of the most intelligent and reliable guides to the region" Touches on major issues in foreign policy and economics that will impact Asian nations and the United States over the near future Explains the changing nature of economic relations in the global economy For foreign policy followers, politicians, and businesspeople, Asia Alone charts a path forward—together.
While Americans are generally aware of China's ambitions as a global economic and military superpower, few understand just how deeply and assertively that country has already sought to influence American society. As the authors of this volume write, it is time for a wake-up call. In documenting the extent of Beijing's expanding influence operations inside the United States, they aim to raise awareness of China's efforts to penetrate and sway a range of American institutions: state and local governments, academic institutions, think tanks, media, and businesses. And they highlight other aspects of the propagandistic “discourse war” waged by the Chinese government and Communist Party leaders that are less expected and more alarming, such as their view of Chinese Americans as members of a worldwide Chinese diaspora that owes undefined allegiance to the so-called Motherland.Featuring ideas and policy proposals from leading China specialists, China's Influence and American Interests argues that a successful future relationship requires a rebalancing toward greater transparency, reciprocity, and fairness. Throughout, the authors also strongly state the importance of avoiding casting aspersions on Chinese and on Chinese Americans, who constitute a vital portion of American society. But if the United States is to fare well in this increasingly adversarial relationship with China, Americans must have a far better sense of that country's ambitions and methods than they do now.
A respected Chinese political philosopher calls for the Communist Party to take the lead in moving China along the path to democracy before it is too late. With Xi Jinping potentially set as president for life, China’s move toward political democracy may appear stalled. But Jiwei Ci argues that four decades of reform have created a mentality in the Chinese people that is just waiting for the political system to catch up, resulting in a disjunction between popular expectations and political realities. The inherent tensions in a largely democratic society without a democratic political system will trigger an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy, forcing the Communist Party to act or die. Two crises loom for the government. First is the waning of the Communist Party’s revolutionary legacy, which the party itself sees as a grave threat. Second is the fragility of the next leadership transition. No amount of economic success will compensate for the party’s legitimacy deficit when the time comes. The only effective response, Ci argues, will be an orderly transition to democracy. To that end, the Chinese government needs to start priming its citizens for democracy, preparing them for new civil rights and civic responsibilities. Embracing this pragmatic role offers the Communist Party a chance to survive. Its leaders therefore have good reason to initiate democratic change. Sure to challenge the Communist Party and stir debate, Democracy in China brings an original and important voice to an issue with far-reaching consequences for China and the world.