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"Throughout the ages, many things have been used as currency: livestock, grains, spices, shells, beads, and now paper. But only two things have ever been money: gold and silver. When paper money becomes too abundant, and thus loses its value, man always turns back to precious metals. During these times there is always an enormous wealth transfer, and it is within your power to transfer that wealth away from you or toward you." --Michael Maloney, precious metals investment expert and historian; founder and principal, Gold & Silver, Inc. The Advanced Guide to Investing Gold and Silver tells readers: The essential history of economic cycles that make gold and silver the ultimate monetary standard. How the U.S. government is driving inflation by diluting our money supply and weakening our purchasing power Why precious metals are one of the most profitable, easiest, and safest investments you can make Where, when, and how to invest your money and realize maximum returns, no matter what the economy's state Essential advice on avoiding the middleman and taking control of your financial destiny by making your investments directly.
This influential study of the relationship between the prices of gold and other commodities was originally published in 1935. In it the authors attributed the initial cause of the great depression in the US to the reestablishment of the gold standard in many European countries and resulting deflation. The authors' recommendations were successfully implemented by Franklin D. Roosevelt.
First published in 1913, this Routledge Revivals title reissues J. A. Hobson’s seminal analysis of the causal link between the rise in gold prices and the increase in wages and consumer buying power in the early years of the Twentieth Century. Contrary to the assertions of some notable contemporary economists and businessmen, Hobson contended that the relationship between gold prices and wages (and the resulting social unrest across much of Europe) was in fact much more complex than it initially appeared and that there were significantly more important factors in the rise of contemporary wealth, such as the rapid enlargement of state enterprise and joint stock companies; a wide extension of banking and general financial apparatus; and the opening of profitable fields of investment for the development of underdeveloped countries, which helped raise the rate of interest and profits.
What is an appropriate exchange rate for gold in 2015 when priced in US dollars? What will be the appropriate exchange rate when priced in Euros in 2017?We don't know. Worse, a number of highly intelligent and recognized experts can't even agree whether gold will be priced higher or lower in three years.Given that major disagreement among experts, who and what should an investor believe regarding the exchange of steadily devaluing dollars, euros, pounds and yen for the purchase of gold?My solution was to create an empirical model based on several macro-economic variables, not including the price of gold. The goal of the model was to accurately replicate the smoothed price of gold as calculated with a twice smoothed moving average of monthly closing prices since 1971.The model performed well – specifically it had a 0.98 statistical correlation with the actual smoothed market price of gold in US dollars between 1971 and 2013. The resulting graph of calculated gold prices rose from about $30 in 1971 to about $500 in 1980 - 84, down to under $300 in 1999 - 2001, and then up to about $1,500 in 2013.Currently the model shows that gold, selling for about $1,300, is undervalued and therefore likely to move higher in coming years.But how much higher? The book discusses reasonable projections based on the estimated change of the macro-economic inputs to the model and then calculates reasonable or “fair” values for gold through the year 2021.Of course the price of gold will rise above and fall below the calculated “fair” value during the next several years, but estimating the “fair” value will help people evaluate whether or not the market price of gold is over or under valued at any particular time.Examples: The model indicated that the market price of gold at its peak in August 2011 was 30% higher than the “fair” price. Similarly, the market price of gold in December 2013 was 26% below its “fair” price. This “fair” value information would have been particularly valuable to those who were considering purchases of gold in August 2011 or selling their gold in December 2013.The model accurately replicated, on average, the smoothed price of gold for over 40 years. Furthermore the model was robust. Since 1971 the world has experienced stock market booms and busts, bond market bull and bear markets, “shock and awe,” occasional peace, the inflationary 1970s, the stock market booms of the 1990s, the devastation of 9-11 and subsequent wars, a housing crash, and a global financial crash in 2008. The model created accurate “fair” value estimates for the price of gold during all those market extremes.The book is divided into three parts.Part one explores the need for an empirical model, examines monthly gold prices since 1971, smoothed annual gold prices, the macro-economic variables used in the model, the actual formula that replicates smoothed gold prices, and future gold prices as projected by the model. It also discusses gold cycles, various ratios, and shows how those cycles and ratios support the price projections indicated by the model. Part two addresses the larger economic environment including counter-party risk, The Fed, interest rates, QE, inflation, and central bank gold sales. Part three encourages you to act in accordance with your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance. It offers suggestions on how to purchase gold, where to store gold, when to buy and sell, and what a bubble in the gold market could indicate for prices. The model has a 40+ year record of calculating a reasonable and “fair” price for gold. There is no guarantee that the model will continue to be accurate in the future, but the model is certainly more useful and objective than the opinions of many supposed experts and biased analysts who materially disagree on future expectations for gold prices.
The role of gold in the world's exchange system has been hotly contested by leading economists. This work collects the most important arguments in favour of gold, including such works as David Ricardo's "High price of Bullion" and W. Stanley Jevons's "Money and the Mechanism of Exchange".