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The Treasury should re-establish the annual Budget as the main focus of fiscal and economic policy making. The Autumn Statement is not, nor should it be, a second Budget. An additional budget can create uncertainty and carries an economic cost. Treasury and business managers also need to ensure that there is adequate Parliamentary time to allow proper scrutiny of the Finance Bill. About half of general government expenditure is to be protected from the new spending cuts but the complete protection of ring-fenced departmental budgets will be difficult to sustain while other departments are substantially affected. The Committee also intends to question the future Governor of the Bank of England, Dr Mark Carney, on possible alternatives to the inflation targeting that currently underpins the work of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank. The Treasury and to some extent the Bank were at fault for failing to coordinate the announcement of the Asset Purchase Facility transfer with that of the November MPC press release. It is vital that the MPC fulfils its duty to demonstrate its independence. There is concern at reports that the Funding for Lending Scheme may be biased in favouring lending for mortgages rather than lending to SMEs. The sums expected from the sale of the 4G spectrum and Swiss tax repatriation represent the majority of the additional receipts the Treasury intends to offset against the tax reductions and investment but both are uncertain. The Chancellor must also use the 2013 Budget to set out a clearer strategy for fuel duty over at least the medium term
The OBR's forecast for GDP growth in 2012 is -0.1 percent and is projected to pick up in every year of the forecast. Public Sector Net Borrowing is forecast to fall by 1.0 percent of GDP in 2012-13 and in subsequent years of the forecast. Public Sector Net Debt is expected to be 79.9 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 before falling to 77.3 per cent by 2017-18. This Statement sets out a further £6.6 billion package of savings in the spending review period, made up from welfare, Official Development Assistance (ODA) and departmental current spending. A £5.5 billion of additional infrastructure will be funded, including in new roads, science and free schools and academies. There will be a further 1 per cent cut in the main rate of corporation tax from April 2014, to 21 per cent and a significant temporary increase in the Annual Investment Allowance from £25,000 to £250, 000 for two years. A greater proportion of growth-related spending will be devolved to local areas and a Business Bank will be created to deploy £1 billion of additional capital and enable UK Export Finance to provide up to £1.5 billion in loans with a package of reforms to promote export. The Government will: increase the basic State Pension by 2.5 percent; create an HM Revenue & Customs unit dedicated to tackling offshore tax evasion; introduce of the UK's first General Anti-abuse Rule; develop significant new information disclosure and penalty powers; and close off tax loopholes. Lifetime allowances for pension contributions will be reduced.
A Treasury led 'dash for gas' could make the UK's carbon targets under the Climate Change Act unachievable. The Committee is calling on the Government to restore investor confidence in the future direction of energy policy by setting a clear decarbonisation objective in the forthcoming Energy Bill to clean up the power sector by 2030. Ongoing policy uncertainty could mean that the UK loses out on millions of pounds of green investment. Global competition for green growth is fierce and the UK is competing with other countries to secure renewables investment. The Committee heard a variety of suggestions to boost take-up of energy efficiency measures in its inquiry on the Autumn Statement and received suggestions for new environmental taxes that could be implemented to help deliver the Coalition Agreement commitment to increase the proportion of tax revenues accounted for by environmental taxes
Around 43% of departmental expenditure limits are ring-fenced. As a consequence, public expenditure control - on the scale required to address the deficit - will be increasingly difficult. While ring-fencing reflects public priorities, those preferences are not equally strongly held for all ring-fenced areas. Support for the 33.5% cumulative real increase in aid over the course of this Parliament, for example, appears to be lower than for health and schools. The Committee also remains concerned about the impact of the Government's Help to Buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme. An abrupt end to the scheme could distort the market, as could announcements which radically alter people's expectations. Forecasts of additional revenue from many anti-avoidance measures are inherently extremely uncertain. The Committee warned in its report on the Autumn Statement 2012 that the forecast revenues from the UK-Swiss agreement - at £5.3 billion - were subject to uncertainty and that the proceeds may not meet expectations. These concerns appear to have been justified. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The OBR should look again at how the Government accounts for projected revenues, based on previous experience. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The more transparency about the yield, and therefore each proposal's effectiveness, the better
This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy has performed less strongly than forecast in March 2012 (Cm. 8303, ISBN 9780101830324) and GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% in 2012 and then to grow by 1.2% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is forecast at £108 billion or 6.9% of GDP this year (excluding the transfer of the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit into the public sector). PSNB is then forecast to decline to £31 billion or 1.6% of GDP by 20017-18. Public sector net debt (PSND) is now expected to peak at 79.9% of GDP in 2015-16 meaning the Government will miss its supplementary target of PSND falling as a share of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Other developments since the March 2012 forecasts include: the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8%, and the overall level of employment rose to 29.6 million in the three months to September. Around half the increase since 2011 has been driven by a rise in self-employment and part-time employees, though total hours worked per week have also risen. The situation in the euro area continues to weigh on confidence and trade. Inflation is also likely to be higher in the short term, reducing the growth of real household disposable income and consumption. The Government has a greater than 50% chance of hitting its fiscal mandate.
OECD's 2013 Economic Survey of the United Kingdom examines recent economic developments, policy and prospects. In addition, it looks at growth and inequality in the UK.
The Autumn Statement sets out the Government's actions in three areas: protecting the economy; building a stronger economy for the future; and fairness. This document details plans for: public spending in 2015-16 and 2016-17; raising state pension age to 67 between 2026 and 2028; setting public sector pay awards at an average of one per cent for each of the two years after current pay freeze ends; £21 billion credit easing measures to support smaller and mid-sized businesses. To build a stronger economy, the Government is funding £6.3 billion of additional infrastructure spending, £1 billion of private sector investment in regulated industries will be supported by Government guarantee, and the Regional Growth Fund for England will be increased by £1 billion. Other measures on credit easing and enterprise include: up to £20 billion National Loan guarantee Scheme; investigation of alternatives to tribunal hearings; possible changes to collective redundancy processes; two proposals for radical reform of employment law; a Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme offering 50 per cent income tax relief on investments. Education will see an extra £600 million to fund 100 more free schools, and £600 million for local authorities with the greatest demographic pressures. Housing support includes a new build indemnity scheme to increase the supply of affordable mortgage finance and a revised right to buy scheme. Fairness measures cover fuel duty, rail fares, a Youth Contract worth £940 million, and extending the offer of 15 hours free education and care a week for disadvantaged two year olds.
In this report the Low Pay Commission has continued to take a cautious approach to the National Minimum Wage (NMW) during the economic downturn, so as avoid jeopardising the gains that the wage has brought to the lowest paid and because of the pressures on businesses, particularly small businesses. The recommendations, to take effect from 1 October 2013, include: that the adult rate of the National Minimum Wage be increased by 1.9 per cent or 12 pence to £6.31 an hour; the Youth Development Rate to increase by 1 per cent or 5 pence to £5.03 an hour; the 16-17 Year old rate to increase by 1 per cent or 4 pence to £3.72 an hour. The Apprentice rate is to remain unchanged at £2.65 an hour: given evidence that 30-40 per cent of 16-17 year old apprentices are paid below the recommended rate, the Commission sees no point in raising the legal floor if it is not observed. The Commission also recommends that the accommodation offset be increased by 9 pence to £4.91 a day. The report contains five chapters and six appendices. Chapters cover: the economic context to the October 2012 rates; the impact of the minimum wage; young people and apprentices; compliance and operation of the National Minimum Wage; the rates for 2013.
Budget 2013 announces further detail on the Government's deficit reduction plans, new steps to ensure monetary policy continues to support the economy (including a new remit for the Monetary Policy Committee), and further measures to ease the long-term pressure on the public finances. Central government departmental expenditure limits will be reduced by £1.1 billion in 2013-14 and £1.2 billion in 2014-15, with the funds used to support housing. Schools and health budgets remain unchanged. Public sector pay awards will be limited to an average of 1 per cent. Budget 2013 is fiscally neutral. Action to promote growth includes: a reduction in corporation tax by 1 per cent in April 2015; from April 2014 giving businesses and charities an entitlement to a £2000 employment allowance per year towards their employer National Insurance contributions, designed particularly to help small businesses; capital spending increase by £3 billion a year; providing £1.6 funding to support strategies in 11 key sectors; creation of a Single Local Growth Fund; introduce a new housing scheme, Help to Buy comprising an extension of the First Buy scheme and mortgage guarantee for lenders who offer mortgages to people with a deposit of between 5 and 20 per cent on homes with a value up to £600,000; reducing the qualifying period for Right to Buy; doubling the existing affordable homes guarantee programme, to support a further 15,000 affordable homes in England by 2015. Other measures include: first £10,000 of income to be tax free in 2014-15; cancellation of planned fuel duty increases; a new tax-free Childcare Scheme and increased child support in Universal Credit; implement the £72,000 cap on reasonable social care costs; reduce beer duty by 2 per cent; crackdown on tax avoidance, with the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey entering into tax information exchange agreements.
This book asks what is the quality of participation in contemporary art and performance? Has it been damaged by cultural policies which have 'entrepreneurialized' artists, cut arts funding and cultivated corporate philanthropy? Has it been fortified by crowdfunding, pop-ups and craftsmanship? And how can it help us to understand social welfare?