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Phongpaichit (economics, Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok) and Baker (a freelance writer) discuss how Thailand got through its recent economic crisis. Emphasis is placed on four main themes: the economic and social management of the crisis, economic changes brought about by the crisis, the political origins and impact of the crisis, and internal debates about the crisis and future social directions. Distributed in the US by U. of Washington Press. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.
Thailand Beyond the Crisis includes recent research to give an accurate and up to date picture of the status of Thailand's economic recovery. The Asian economic crisis began in Thailand and ended a decade of sustained economic boom. This book identifies the role of policy errors involving both the Thai government and the IMF that lead to the crash of the fastest growing economy in the world. Warr addresses the consequences of the crisis, including sharply increased poverty incidence and a backlog of non- performing loans which clogged the banking system, delaying recovery. Key content includes: * the Social Consequences of the crisis, and alternatives * public sector reform * implications of a floating exchange rate * education * urbanisation and the environment.
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Four years since the onset of the financial crisis, Thailand’s economic recovery remains fragile and is now threatened by a sharp slowdown in external demand. Bank and corporate sector restructuring policies have formed a key focus of the Article IV discussions. An important initiative to accelerate bank and corporate restructuring is the recent establishment of the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMC). An inadequate legal framework has been a major impediment to corporate debt restructuring. Even with an acceleration of bank and corporate restructuring, questions will remain about medium-term growth prospects.
Our findings indicate that the prime causes of the crisis in Thailand were as follows: the mismatching of domestic economic policies with a changed global economic climate; excessive praise of Thailand's & ldquo;miracle & rdquo; economy; the pro-cyclicality of consumer spending; the crowding-out effect of foreign saving; and the speculative behaviours of investors. The IMF's billion-dollar rescue package in the aftermath of the crisis failed to improve the situation because of the inappropriate conditions imposed on Thailand in return for these loans.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.