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Radical technological changes (so-called "technology shocks") frequently disrupt the competitive market structure. New entrants appear, industries need to be redefined, incumbents lose their positions or vanish completely. Fast moving industries - like the often quoted example of the semiconductor industry - have preferably been analyzed for these phenomena. But do the findings hold for industries with longer development cycles like the global machine tool industry? Here, multivariate analysis is used to find out what management needs to focus on in order to lead companies through the technology shocks. The research for this book builds on in-depth interviews with 100 experts and decision makers from the machine tool industry involved in technology shocks and statistical analysis of detailed quantitative surveys collected from 58 companies. In several instances the results challenge classical teaching of technology management. Adrian J. Slywotzky - US top selling business author and one of the most distinguished intellectual leaders in business - comments: "In Technology Shocks, Heinrich Arnold develops a very useful model for analyzing technology shocks, and for focusing on those factors that will enable a company to navigate through these shocks successfully, and repeatedly. Although this work is focused on technology, its thinking has useful implications beyond technology shocks. It provides ideas that managers can use to protect their firms when they are faced with any type of discontinuity, technology-based or not".
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Understanding the joint dynamics of internat. prices and quantities remains a central issue in internat. bus. cycles. Internat. relative prices appreciate when domestic consumption and output increase more than their foreign counterparts. In addition, both trade flows and trade prices display sizable volatility. This paper incorporates Hicks-neutral and investment-specific TS into a standard two-country general equilibrium model with variable capacity utilization and weak wealth effects on labor supply. Investment-specific TS introduce a source of fluctuations in absorption similar to taste shocks, thus reconciling theory and data. Also presents implications for the transmission mechanism of TS across countries. Illus. This is a print on demand pub.
IST shocks are often interpreted as multi-factor productivity (MFP) shocks in a separate investment-producing sector. However, this interpretation is strictly valid only when some stringent conditions are satisfied. Some of these conditions are at odds with the data. Using a two-sector model whose calibration is based on the U.S. Input-Output Tables, the authors consider the implications of relaxing several of these conditions. They show how the effects of IST shocks in a one-sector model differ from those of MFP shocks to an investment-producing sector of a two-sector model. MFP shocks induce a positive short-run correlation between consumption and investment consistent with U.S. data, while IST shocks do not. Illus. This is a print on demand report.
The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real business cycle model. In particular, we identify from the literature six different hypotheses that generate the empirically observed decline in worked hours after a positive technology shock. These models alternatively exhibit (i) sticky prices; (ii) firm entry and exit with time to build; (iii) habit in consumption and costly adjustment of investment; (iv) persistence in the permanent technology shocks; (v) labor market friction with procyclical hiring costs; and (vi) Leontief production function with labor-saving technology shocks. In terms of model posterior probabilities, impulse responses, and autocorrelations, the model favored is the one that exhibits habit formation in consumption and investment adjustment costs. A robustness test shows that the sticky price model becomes as competitive as the habit formation and costly adjustment of investment model when sticky wages are included.
This book concentrates on major changes that are now taking place in the fields of technology, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and development strategies, with a particular focus on India. Arguably, these changes are likely to differ from those that the world has experienced over the past few decades; in particular, now that many countries have globalised their economies. The book begins by reviewing the changing pattern of FDI flows and technologies among developed and emerging economies, before identifying the determinants of this change by presenting specific studies on Indian industries. It then addresses key questions such as: How are knowledge spillover mechanisms operationalised, and what are the implications of the internationalisation of the IPR process? The role of FDI is also analysed in order to make policy recommendations for fostering innovation in emerging economies like India. The respective chapters examine the process through which technological paradigm and trajectory shifts are taking place, the factors that facilitate such shifts, the changing pattern of FDI, and the shifting focus of international trade and development strategies – four broad themes that are interrelated and mutually reinforcing. The book offers important takeaways for all social scientists, technologists and business schools interested in Indian studies; it will also benefit researchers whose work involves development economics, industrial organisation and technology, and the economy / society interface.
Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth presents a selection of recent research advances on long term economic growth. While the contributions stem from both economic history, macro- and microeconomics and the economics of innovation, all papers depart from a common viewpoint: the key factor behind long term growth is productivity, and the latter is primarily driven by technological change. Most contributions show implicitly or explicitly that technological change is at least partly dependent on growth itself. Furthermore, technology appears to interact strongly with investment in physical and human capital as well as with changes in historical, political and institutional settings. Together these papers are an up-to-date account of the remarkable convergence in theoretical and empirical work on productivity and growth over the past decades. The first part deals with the characteristics of growth regimes over longer periods, ranging from 20 years to two centuries. The next four chapters study the determinants of productivity growth and, in some cases, productivity slowdown during the last quarter of the twentieth century. The final five chapters focus on the role of technology and innovation as the key determinants of growth. Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth is, therefore, a welcome collection for academic scholars and graduate students in economics, history and related social sciences as well as for policy makers.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The classic work that predicted the anxieties of a world upended by rapidly emerging technologies—and now provides a road map to solving many of our most pressing crises. “Explosive . . . brilliantly formulated.” —The Wall Street Journal Future Shock is the classic that changed our view of tomorrow. Its startling insights into accelerating change led a president to ask his advisers for a special report, inspired composers to write symphonies and rock music, gave a powerful new concept to social science, and added a phrase to our language. Published in over fifty countries, Future Shock is the most important study of change and adaptation in our time. In many ways, Future Shock is about the present. It is about what is happening today to people and groups who are overwhelmed by change. Change affects our products, communities, organizations—even our patterns of friendship and love. But Future Shock also illuminates the world of tomorrow by exploding countless clichés about today. It vividly describes the emerging global civilization: the rise of new businesses, subcultures, lifestyles, and human relationships—all of them temporary. Future Shock will intrigue, provoke, frighten, encourage, and, above all, change everyone who reads it.