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New technology is intimately associated with increased economic growth. The tools people have and when they acquired them tells us much about cyclical patterns of growth. Those interested in encouraging economic growth would do well to look to the conditions that spur the origins, development, and impact of technology - as well as the circumstances that spur prolific periods of invention, the mother of technology. Despite general recognition of the connection between technology and growth, economists rarely have gotten to the heart of the relationship. Joseph Schumpeter and John Hicks were aware of the role of technology in cyclical variability, but their thoughts were not elaborated upon after they passed from the scene. Edmonson goes beyond formal theory, reviewing the record of economic growth and the role of technology in this growth. What does the technology future hold? One clue is where past prototype inventions that that have fomented massive technological innovations have come from. Some parts of the private sector, such as Bell Labs, have been important. The government, particularly in its sponsorship of defense related research, has delivered a number of inventions. Universities are very much in the picture in certain fields, such as nanotechnology. The challenges we face at the onset of the twenty-first century are covered in depth and with imagination by Edmonson. The book will spur much rethinking about economic futures.
The overarching theme of this volume is the cyclical nature of technological change, its impact on economic growth, and the limits of government intervention. Technological revolutions are infrequent; there were only three in all of the twentieth century. When they occur, their possibilities are often not immediately apparent. Technology revolutions induce capital investment, not just because they stimulate the need to acquire the new technology, but also because of the need to replace obsolete capacity and new infrastructure. While government has encouraged general economic progress by carrying out highly risky innovations unrelated to fostering economic growth, it seldom succeeds with specific efforts to foster growth. Recent examples of success include the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS), which trace their origins to defense-related research. In contrast, the countercyclical economic stimuli of 2007-2009 have achieved little in the way of general growth. The lack of data about the technology cycle makes formulating appropriate monetary and other policy countercyclical interventions difficult. A technology-founded upswing animated the American economy after 1990, and the -great recession- of 2007- 2009 reflected the waning of the investment boom that this revolution generated. Edmonson argues that the impact of technology revolutions on general economic growth has never received the attention it deserves. This volume will contribute much to debates on economic policy.
This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
This report addresses a number of issues that have surfaced in the debates over the impact of technological change on employment. These issues include the effects of technological change on levels of employment and unemployment within the economy; on the displacement of workers in specific industries or sectors of the economy; on skill requirements; on the welfare of women, minorities, and labor force entrants in a technologically transformed economy; and on the organization of the firm and the workplace. It concludes that technological change will contribute significantly to growth in employment opportunities and wages, although workers in specific occupations and industries may have to move among jobs and careers. Recommends initiatives and options to assist workers in making such transitions. ISBN 0-309-03744-1 (pbk.).
Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- 1. Basic Concepts -- 2. The Nineteenth Century's Legacy: Invention and Discovery to 1910 -- 3. Innovation and Prosperity: 1900-1930 -- 4. Technology and Depression -- 5. Materials: Enablers in the Twentieth Century -- 6. Government Fostering of Invention/Innovation after 1940 -- 7. Government Regulation and Technology -- 8. Computers and Other Electronics -- 9. Light -- 10. Medical and Related Technology -- 11. On Technology and the Postwar Economy -- 12. Technologies that Develop Slowly -- 13. On Invention and Innovation -- 14. On Choice among New Technologies -- 15. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- Bibliography -- Index
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Traditionally, economists have considered the accumulation of conventional inputs such as labour and capital to be the primary force behind economic growth. In the late-1990s however, many economists place technological progress at the centre of the growth process. This shift is due to theoretical developments that allow researchers to link microeconomic outcomes.
This book provides a careful historical analysis of the co-evolution of educational attainment and the wage structure in the United States through the twentieth century. The authors propose that the twentieth century was not only the American Century but also the Human Capital Century. That is, the American educational system is what made America the richest nation in the world. Its educational system had always been less elite than that of most European nations. By 1900 the U.S. had begun to educate its masses at the secondary level, not just in the primary schools that had remarkable success in the nineteenth century. The book argues that technological change, education, and inequality have been involved in a kind of race. During the first eight decades of the twentieth century, the increase of educated workers was higher than the demand for them. This had the effect of boosting income for most people and lowering inequality. However, the reverse has been true since about 1980. This educational slowdown was accompanied by rising inequality. The authors discuss the complex reasons for this, and what might be done to ameliorate it.