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Real output growth of the Republic of the Marshall Islands appears to have slowed sharply in FY2003 and again in FY2004. The 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity has been hampered by delays in implementing an upgraded public works program and the closure of a large privately owned tuna processing plant. The fiscal position deteriorated in FY2004. This deterioration reflects, on the revenue side, a decline in grants aimed at infrastructure projects owing in part to delays in initiating projects, lower income tax collection, and volatility in nontax revenue.
The economy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands has experienced a strong recovery with a 5.2 percent growth in 2010 following strong improvement in the fisheries sector and a moderate recovery in exports. The financial sector remained focused on consumer lending and contributed little to overall economic growth. Although the financial sector remained profitable, much of the rapid growth in credit has been in consumer loans. The authorities are monitoring high levels of household debt and intend to begin work on strengthening the regulatory framework.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth of The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) picked up in FY2012 (fiscal year, ending September 30) to 3.2 percent, lifted by a surge in fishery output and higher copra and coconut oil production. In FY2013, however, growth is expected to have slowed to 0.8 percent, dragged down by delays in the implementation of infrastructure projects. The current account deficit including official transfers remained elevated at 8.1 percent of GDP in FY2012. In FY2014, GDP growth is projected to rebound to 3.2 percent, driven by the resumption of Compact-funded infrastructure projects.
Real GDP declined by 4.5 percent in FY2022 due entirely to a decline in fisheries. However, excluding the sector, growth was 4.2 percent, fueled by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation has picked up due to higher food and fuel prices, while the current account surplus narrowed as COVID-related grants declined and the trade deficit widened.
Strong and timely containment measures have successfully prevented a domestic COVID-19 outbreak but have also weighed on economic activity. The real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 3.3 percent in FY2020 and is projected to further decline by another 1.5 percent in FY 2021 due to continued travel restrictions. Economic activity is expected to pick up in FY2022, as COVID-related restrictions will be relaxed gradually. The government is currently negotiating the renewal of Compact of Free Association (COFA) financial provisions with the United States, but terms remain uncertain. The government is considering to repeal the SOV Act and a bill on establishing a Digital Economic Zone was submitted to the Parliament recently.