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The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is highly dependent on external aid. Following a recession in FY2006–08, the FSM economy has grown by 2–21⁄2 percent for FY2010 and FY2011. The economy remains dependent on the large public sector, although the fisheries and agriculture sectors have shown signs of growth. Despite some deterioration in current account balance, external balance also has sustained a stable flow of official transfers. However, economic growth is likely to slow in the near term owing to a decline in public sector demand.
A virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported by the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD) was conducted by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) during October 25 – November 2, 2021. The mission assisted the Department of Resources and Development (DoRD), National Statistics Office (NSO) improving the compilation and dissemination of Government Finance statistics (GFS) and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) according to the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM2014) and the Public-Sector Debt Statistics Guide 2011 (PSDSG 2011). The mission was conducted under the Data for Decisions (D4D) trust fund,1 a multi-donor initiative aimed at strengthening the quality of national statistical outputs to better support economic policy making in low-and lower-middle income countries and the PFTAC GFS capacity development project.
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is estimated to have slowed. Despite the use of the bump-up funds by some of the FSM’s four state governments to boost spending during FY2002, GDP is estimated to have grown only by 0.8 percent. The fiscal stimulus appears to have been mostly offset by an emerging fiscal crisis in Chuuk and a “wait and see” attitude of the private sector in the face of uncertainty associated with the new Compact of Free Association.
The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have put severe strains on the economy. The economic policy response has been strong and generally appropriate, helping counter the negative effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, as the international borders remain shut, the economic contraction is likely to deepen in FY2021. A slow recovery is expected for FY2022 driven by a gradual border reopening. The FSM is facing significant medium-term uncertainty, owing to the possible expiration of grants and other assistance provided under the Compact Agreement with the United States. The FSM is also highly vulnerable to climate change-induced natural disasters.