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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Futures thinking and foresight is a powerful planning approach that can help Asia and the Pacific countries meet economic, political, social, and environmental and climate change challenges. This publication shows how the Asian Development Bank (ADB) piloted this approach to understand entry points to support transformational change in the region. It compiles lessons from an ADB initiative to apply futures and foresight tools in Armenia, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the People's Republic of China, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. Futures terminology is introduced as are specific tools such as emerging issues analysis, scenario planning, and backcasting. It also describes how futures and foresight tools were applied in the countries.
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
This report examines the role that national institutional and governance innovations and changes that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic can play in advancing progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The consequences of the pandemic threaten to derail progress and make the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more difficult to achieve. Yet the pandemic also sparked rapid innovation in government institutions and public administration that could be capitalized on. Against this backdrop, the report focuses on how governments can reshape their relationship with people and other actors to enhance trust and promote the changes required for more sustainable and peaceful societies. How they can assess competing priorities and address difficult policy trade-offs that have emerged since 2020. And what assets and innovations they can mobilize to transform the public sector and achieve the SDGs. The e-book for this publication has been converted into an accessible format for the visually impaired and people with print reading disabilities. It is fully compatible with leading screen-reader technologies such as JAWS and NVDA.
Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.
Paraguay has faced multiple shocks in the past five years as the COVID-19 pandemic was bookended by severe droughts that affected two key sectors, electricity production and agricultural production. The economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience during this period, supported by policy measures commensurate with the magnitude of the challenge, like the USD 2 billion fiscal response to the pandemic. These shocks have also exposed key underlying vulnerabilities in the country’s economy and development model, including reliance on agricultural exports, informality, limited revenue-raising capacity, and exposure to the consequences of climate change. The response and stimulus recognised these issues and found new ways to address or circumvent them, albeit in many cases not efficiently or permanently. This report draws lessons from policy measures implemented during the pandemic and recovery phase and applies them to current strategic challenges. In doing so, it highlights policy priorities to make Paraguay’s development path more inclusive, stronger and more resilient.
The book aims to improve our understanding of what it means to create high-quality analytical products by focusing on the concept of relevance for policy-makers. Despite variations in context, strategic analysts in different sectors (in both intelligence and non-intelligence government organizations, private consultancies, think tanks, and academia) face similar problems in identifying the needs of their clients and setting up organizations with the mandates, structures, and personnel necessary to address those needs. The objective is therefore to identify these common challenges, compare solutions, and share lessons learned. To do so, broader thematic reflections on strategic analysis are combined with innovative case studies of how organizations have worked to successfully produce relevant analysis. The first section explores challenges to achieving relevance at the level of the analyst, while the remainder of the book analyses cases at the level of organizations.
The publication of this issue on Future for Europe marks a new milestone for TPQ. The journal was founded in 2002 and we celebrated its 20th anniversary with the last issue on Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Values. Among many academics and AI policy professionals, it was considered a landmark publication. Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) now has a new identity as Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ). Our plans to move with this name have been ongoing for a while. The success of the last issue was a perfect illustration of the necessity of this change. TPQ's editorial and curatorial policies have and will continue to reflect a global perspective without sacrificing its roots. This means we will extend our coverage beyond what we currently offer. In the wake of the Russian incursion into the Ukraine, European soil has seen a return of tragedy. As memories of the Second World War on the continent have receded, it has been argued that the European project has lost appeal over the past few decades. This is no longer the case. The war has also exposed the EU's deficiencies and highlighted the fact that it must be reformed to fulfill the needs of the twenty-first century. The Covid-19 pandemic is also one of the most significant events in our lifetime, and it has radically altered the way Europeans perceive their own societies and the world in general. Nonetheless, one of the most important lessons we can learn from these tragic events is that we must show a strong, constant, and united capability to deter and confront acts of violence. Professor Thomas Diez writes that the war in Ukraine fundamentally challenges the post-Cold War international order. In that regard, he believes that alternative visions of a European order should be developed to counter the scenario of a renewed Cold War. The author reassesses the concepts of interdependence, socialization, normative power, and international society in his contribution to uncover some general lessons for the European order, as well as provide concrete suggestions for alternative policy strategies. As he points out, such an order would require more honest engagement, a system of great power management with social links, and a creative approach to thinking about joint institutions and regional overlaps. Professor Knud Erik Jørgensen starts with a timely question: Europe's hour of reckoning? In his view, the hour of reckoning refers to when one must confront past mistakes and determine a course of action. He says Russia's war in Ukraine exposes numerous mistakes Europe made in the past and accelerates the development of a new foreign policy paradigm. As a result, he examines the role played by the emerging policy paradigm in shaping the politics of EU foreign policy. Furthermore, the article argues that the emerging paradigm is closely linked, if not dependent, on the ongoing processes of reckoning, that is, to the extent with which past mistakes are acknowledged. Lastly, the article makes a case that the twin processes of reckoning and paradigm change make up a crucial element of Europe's future. Professor Giuseppe Bertola explores a different perspective. According to her, the common-market project, that after World War II aimed to prevent future wars among European nations, has evolved through crises into a complex and unstable set of policies and institutions to govern the European Union. A pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus and the war in Ukraine strengthened coordination and added issuance of common debt to the supranational policy toolkit. Nevertheless, NextGenEU relies heavily on government subsidies rather than on market incentives, and Russian invasion of the Ukraine demonstrates that economic integration can only shift the boundaries of war from nation-based to those of the integrated economic area. We invite you to learn more about the factors that will shape the future of Europe.