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Due to egg depositions well below the conservation requirement in recent years, the angling season was closed and there was no First nation allocation of salmon on the Buctouche River as of 1998. Salmon returns in 1999 were calculated from catches and known efficiency of an estuary trapnet operated by Buctouche First Nation. Total large salmon returns were estimated at 244 and total small salmon returns at 114, with respective spawning escapements of 244 and 111. Total egg deposition was estimated at 102% of the conservation requirement. This represents a tripling of the level in 1998, and the first instance in seven assessed years when the requirement may have been met. Juvenile densities on the Buctouche were well below optimum, especially for fry, confirming the low egg deposition observed in 1998. Results from a juvenile survey of four other southeastern New Brunswick rivers indicated that the level of spawning success has been variable and asynchronous. The variability, unpredictability and generally depressed status observed in the Buctouche stock appears to be characteristic of most rivers in the area, and a valid basis for the general management of stocks. The forecast for the Buctouche in 2000 is five year mean of total returns, which is 167 large and 106 for small salmon. With all retention fisheries closed there is only a 3% probability that the egg conservation requirement will be met in 2000.
A procedure of classification using a discriminant function analysis was developed to determine the farmed or native natal origin of Atlantic salmon juveniles in the Magaguadavic River, New Brunswick. Farmed juveniles enter this river as escapees from three commercial aquaculture hatcheries. The procedure evaluated measured scale characteristics from the first year of growth, of farmed and native juveniles of known origin, for their power as predictors of derivation. Eight scale characteristics proved to be significant predictors of origin. In a jackknife cross-validation, the function developed from the characteristics proved to be 90.3% accurate in predicting the origin of juvenile Atlantic salmon in the Magaguadavic River. The procedure was then applied to unknown origin juveniles sampled from the Magaguadavic, Waweig and Digdequash rivers in New Brunswick. All of these rivers support hatcheries. Juvenile salmon sampled in the Magaguadavic River in 1996, 1997 and 1998, were determined to be 34%, 63% and 42% of farmed origin, respectively. During 1998, 9% of the juveniles from the Digdequash River were of farmed origin, and 42% of the juveniles in the Waweig River were of farmed origin. The study indicated that substantial numbers of farmed juveniles escaped from hatcheries and occupied juvenile salmon habitat in all three rivers.
Due to egg depositions well below conservation requirements in recent years, the angling season was closed and there was no First Nation allocation of salmon on the Buctouche River in 1998. A mark-recapture experiment was the basis for estimating returns: tags were applied at two estuarial trapnets and recovered at a counting fence in freshwater. Total large salmon returns were estimated at 102 and total small salmon returns at 92. Respective spawning escapements were 101 and 91. Total egg deposition was only 33% of the conservation requirement, representing a 52% decrease relative to 1997. Juvenile densities at the sites surveyed were generally higher than previous years but still well below optimum, confirming that spawning in recent years has been inadequate. At present, sufficient information on stock status has not been accumulated to forecast returns, but an analysis of various management scenarios indicates that even with all fisheries closed, there is only a 1% probability that conservation requirements will be met on the Buctouche River in 1999.
Reports assessments of Buctouche River (south-east New Brunswick) Atlantic salmon stock, as determined through mark-recapture experiments in which tags were applied in the estuary and recovered in the recreational fishery or at a counting fence upriver. Results of electroseining at ten sites during summer 1998 are included in the assessment, along with juvenile density data from previous years, for purposes of comparison. Information on biological characteristics such as length is also provided.