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"Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability hones in on the economic challenges facing authoritarian regimes through a set of comparative case studies, which include Iran, Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, the Eastern bloc countries, China, and Taiwan, authored by the top experts in these countries. Through these comparative case studies, this volume provides readers with the analytical tools for assessing whether the current round of economic shocks will lead to political instability or even regime change among the world's autocracies. This volume identifies the duration of economic shocks, the regime's control over the financial system, and the strength of the ruling party as key variables to explain whether authoritarian regimes would maintain the status quo, adjust their support coalitions, or fall from power after economic shocks"--
Assume that a nation is pursuing a given foreign policy and that we are concerned with the way in which it will act in the future. We may want to make a forecast--but then to what extent is the present policy of a nation a valid guide to its future behavior? Or we may want to influence the nation to change its course--can we succeed? In other words, will the policy change or persist in the face of new conditions or negative feedback? Kjell Goldmann identifies the factors that may have an impact on whether a specific foreign policy is likely to endure or to change and develops them into a theory of foreign policy stability. He then uses this theory to explore the reasons why West German-Soviet detente during the 1970s proved to be more enduring than the improvement in relations between the United States and the Soviet Union. Finally, he outlines a hypothetical scenario for a fully successful process of detente stabilization and examines the extent to which this scenario is realistic. The book ends with some thought about how to conduct a policy aimed at stable detente with an adversary. Originally published in 1988. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
This comprehensive study of Russian electoral politics shows the vulnerability of Putin's regime as it navigates the risks of voter manipulation.
Can terrorism and state violence cause democratic break-downs? Although the origins of violence have been studied, only rarely are its consequences. And even when the consequences of violence are studied, its effects are usually limited to consideration of preexisting conflict that originally spawned the violence. In Terrorism and Democratic Stability, Jennifer S. Holmes claims that to understand the consequences of violence on democratic stability, terrorism and state responses to terrorism must be studied together. Holmes examines the effects of terrorism and state repression on democratic stability in Uruguay, Peru, and Spain. The result is a detailed empirical study set in these locations, placed within an overall theoretical framework. In Uruguay in 1973, the military closed the national assembly and instituted over a decade of authoritarian rule. In spite of seventy years of prior democracy, Uruguayans did not protest. In Peru in April 1992, Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori dissolved the congress and the judiciary. Eighty percent of Peruvians approved of his self-coup. In Spain, the troubled democracy survived an attempted coup in February 1981. Large demonstrations broke out in major cities in favor of democracy. More than three-quarters of Spaniards rejected the coup and almost half said they would act to defend democracy. Why did Uruguayans and Peruvians withhold support for their democracies? Why did the Spaniards defend theirs? This study, which begins conceptually and then moves on to comparative empirical analysis, adopts an innovative approach, identifying a new concept of citizen support as a key factor in the consequences of terrorism and repression on democratic stability. The study of Spain is set within a European Union context that provides important lessons for other EU countries. This book will be of interest to scholars and students of democratic systems, terrorism, and the philosophy of science. Jennifer S. Holmes is assistant professor of government, politics and political economy at the University of Texas at Dallas. Holmes' major area of research within political science is regime change and democratic stability with an emphasis on Latin America. Dr. Holmes' research in Latin America includes questions of the effects of economic reform on democratic support and the impact of political instability on foreign investment in Peru and Spain.
We regard accounting regulation as a politico-economic institution and analyze its evolution in the presence of changing investor sentiment. When the market sentiment is moderate, if most of the business projects in the economy are successful, the economy will enter a stable high-disclosure regime. If most of the projects are unsuccessful, the economy may enter a stable low-disclosure regime or experience a regime change from low to high disclosure. The regime change can take place if the economy coordinates on a future high disclosure quality, which will induce a Pareto improvement and is thus supported by all interest groups in the economy. In contrast, when the market sentiment is extremely hyped up, low disclosure regime will always emerge. While an initial majority of unsuccessful projects will lead the economy into a stable low-disclosure regime, an initial majority of successful projects will also result in a low disclosure regime. This regime change from high to low disclosure occurs because even successful projects benefit from low disclosure due to the significant price boost. These results are generally consistent with the observed development of accounting regulation.
Arab leaderships have been remarkably stable since the 1970s, particularly given the frequency of military coups in preceding years. Nonetheless, the military remains a key force in most Arab states and political leaders must maintain its loyalty if they are to retain office. Regimes have used a range of methods to ensure the military’s backing: In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak has maintained political control largely through providing the military with private and corporate benefits; selective appointments and institutional checks, are also useful instruments. Tribal relations underpin King Hussein’s political control in Jordan. Transjordanians have not only been the main beneficiaries of political power, but have also occupied the key positions in the armed forces. In Syria, President Hafez al-Assad has built his regime on the Alawi minority, while the vast security apparatus limits the spread of sectarian, class or ideological grievances in the military. President Saddam Hussein has established multiple security agencies in Iraq designed to prevent conspiracies against his regime. Regular rotations and purges ensure that few officers are in place long enough to contemplate, let alone organise, a coup, while the severe punishments meted out to suspected plotters are a further disincentive to rebellion. In this paper, Risa Brooks argues that the need for Arab regimes to maintain political control can undermine the combat potential of their armed forces. Centralising command, creating overlapping commands, politicising selection criteria and authorising involvement in economic activities all potentially compromise military effectiveness. The fact that regimes have successfully managed political–military relations in the past does not mean that they will automatically do so in the future. Changing social or economic conditions could upset the equilibrium in political–military relations. Regime stability cannot therefore be taken for granted Transition to new leadership is a looming issue for the key regimes in Egypt, Syria and Jordan; political–military relations will play a crucial role in how it is resolved. New leaders must gain and maintain social support if they are to consolidate power. The fact that so many Middle Eastern regimes face uncertain transitions raises the sobering prospect of profound instability and change in this strategically vital region. Maintaining political control is a continuous and evolving process. A breakdown in social support for the leadership, failure to detect a conspiracy within the military and economic or political change that threatens military prerogatives could all disrupt political–military relations. Current stability should not give rise to complacency.
In the 1990s, amid political upheaval and civil war, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia dissolved into five successor states. The subsequent independence of Montenegro and Kosovo brought the total number to seven. Balkan scholar and diplomat to the region Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski examines four of those states—Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia—and traces their divergent paths toward democracy and Euro-Atlantic integration over the past two decades. Boduszynski argues that regime change in the Yugoslav successor states was powerfully shaped by both internal and external forces: the economic conditions on the eve of independence and transition and the incentives offered by the European Union and other Western actors to encourage economic and political liberalization. He shows how these factors contributed to differing formulations of democracy in each state. The author engages with the vexing problems of creating and sustaining democracy when circumstances are not entirely supportive of the effort. He employs innovative concepts to measure the quality of and prospects for democracy in the Balkan region, arguing that procedural indicators of democratization do not adequately describe the stability of liberalism in post-communist states. This unique perspective on developments in the region provides relevant lessons for regime change in the larger post-communist world. Scholars, practitioners, and policymakers will find the book to be a compelling contribution to the study of comparative politics, democratization, and European integration.
Master's Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Politics - Political Systems - General and Comparisons, grade: 1,3, Vilnius University, 60 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This thesis studies the prospects for democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus. The theoretical part argues that civil society is an important variable in transition theory and a necessary condition for democratic transition. It furthermore argues that in relation with the political culture of one society and the respective type of regime present in one country it is decisive for a successful democratization. Therefore the theoretical framework to study democratic transition should be widened from elites to masses and from a short term perspective to a long term one. This is somewhat different from other studies that concentrate on structural factors like economic development, economic crisis or international influence to explain democratic transition. This thesis undertakes a qualitative comparative analysis of two nontransition cases, Belarus and Cuba, to avoid the selection bias of researching only successful cases of democratic transition and to solve the problem of not finding any individually necessary or jointly sufficient conditions for democratization. The aforementioned factors are analyzed for each case, comparing the main findings and drawing conclusions. The analysis shows that the state of civil society in both countries can only be characterized as embryonic. In the case of Belarus the relatively good starting position of the embryonic civil society after the dissolution of the USSR was not used to strengthen itself. The civil society forces lost continuously support and strength and therefore the ability to fight for democratic transition. The weakness of the Belarusian civil society was therefore a factor that led to a stabilizing of the authoritarian regime.