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This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines is enjoying its second year of vigorous economic growth. Financial sector indicators have strengthened, but balance sheet vulnerabilities remain. Executive Directors have welcomed St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ recent strong macroeconomic performance, marked by robust economic growth, fiscal consolidation, and declining debt levels. Directors have also stressed that continued fiscal consolidation is needed to lower the public debt-to-GDP ratio, and create room to raise social spending.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines has achieved a robust recovery from the pandemic and 2021 volcanic eruptions, supported by large-scale investment projects and robust growth in tourism. Growth is projected at 4.9 percent in 2024, with economic activity surpassing the pre-pandemic trend forecast. Employment has returned to the pre-pandemic level except for young men, and female labor force participation remains relatively low. Inflation has subsided from its peak. The financial system remains sound. The outlook is favorable but is subject to downside risks mainly stemming from the uncertain external environment. In addition, the economy is facing significant challenges from a rapidly ageing population and natural disasters and climate change, amid the still high public debt. Recognizing the challenges, the authorities are implementing a broad array of reforms in line with past Fund advice.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that following the opening of a modern international airport, signs of an economic recovery have emerged, with increased direct flights from major cities in the United States and Canada and renewed interests from foreign investors in tourism projects. The overall fiscal balance has improved over the past few years, and the debt to GDP ratio fell in 2017 for the first time since 2007. However, despite these positive developments, St. Vincent and the Grenadines faces challenges in sustaining the growth momentum over the longer-term. Like other Caribbean economies, its high exposure to natural disasters, limited land, narrow production and exports base, weak business competitiveness, and limited physical and human capital constrain potential growth. The financial system remains broadly stable but has vulnerable spots in the non-bank financial sector. It is important to implement structural reforms to foster private sector activity, by improving the investment environment and strengthening physical and human capital.
This consultation paper explains that in addition to the adverse impact of the global slowdown and higher commodity prices, St. Vincent and the Grenadines has been hit by two successive natural disasters in the last 12 months. As a result, real GDP has been contracted by a cumulative 4.7 percent since 2007 and is expected to remain slightly negative this year. Growth is expected to improve gradually toward its potential, but significant downside risks remain, largely related to developments in the global economy.
KEY ISSUES Background: Activity is slowly recovering after a cumulative decline of about 5 percent during 2008–10. Expansionary fiscal policies—largely to counteract the impact of the global slowdown and the two successive natural disasters—led to a deterioration in fiscal balances, with public debt up by about 101⁄2 percent of GDP over this period. The fiscal deficit, however, is expected to narrow this year, largely reflecting cuts in capital spending. In the financial sector, non performing loans remain above prudential guidelines; provisioning and profitability are low; and supervision remains weak. Policy Challenges: Further fiscal consolidation—including by rebalancing government expenditure toward growth and employment generating public sector projects—is required to ensure medium-term sustained growth as well as keep public sector debt on a downward trajectory. In this regard, improving the efficiency of revenue collection and reducing current spending—especially on the wage bill, which is high relative to revenues—will be crucial to allow the government to maneuver fiscal policy. Financial sector weaknesses also need to be addressed, including through strengthening of supervisory and regulatory standards, to promote effective financial intermediation that supports private sector growth. Structural reforms, including infrastructure enhancements and labor market reforms are critical to improve competitiveness and ensure medium-term growth and current account sustainability.