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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
This volume is dedicated to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which was launched 11 February 2010. The articles focus on the spacecraft and its instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Articles within also describe calibration results and data processing pipelines that are critical to understanding the data and products, concluding with a description of the successful Education and Public Outreach activities. This book is geared towards anyone interested in using the unprecedented data from SDO, whether for fundamental heliophysics research, space weather modeling and forecasting, or educational purposes. Previously published in Solar Physics journal, Vol. 275/1-2, 2012. Selected articles in this book are published open access under a CC BY-NC 2.5 license at link.springer.com. For further details, please see the license information in the chapters.
Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences helps deepen the understanding, description, and forecasting of the complex and inter-related phenomena of extreme space weather events. Composed of chapters written by representatives from many different institutions and fields of space research, the book offers discussions ranging from definitions and historical knowledge to operational issues and methods of analysis. Given that extremes in ionizing radiation, ionospheric irregularities, and geomagnetically induced currents may have the potential to disrupt our technologies or pose danger to human health, it is increasingly important to synthesize the information available on not only those consequences but also the origins and predictability of such events. Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences is a valuable source for providing the latest research for geophysicists and space weather scientists, as well as industries impacted by space weather events, including GNSS satellites and radio communication, power grids, aviation, and human spaceflight. The list of first/second authors includes M. Hapgood, N. Gopalswamy, K.D. Leka, G. Barnes, Yu. Yermolaev, P. Riley, S. Sharma, G. Lakhina, B. Tsurutani, C. Ngwira, A. Pulkkinen, J. Love, P. Bedrosian, N. Buzulukova, M. Sitnov, W. Denig, M. Panasyuk, R. Hajra, D. Ferguson, S. Lai, L. Narici, K. Tobiska, G. Gapirov, A. Mannucci, T. Fuller-Rowell, X. Yue, G. Crowley, R. Redmon, V. Airapetian, D. Boteler, M. MacAlester, S. Worman, D. Neudegg, and M. Ishii. - Helps to define extremes in space weather and describes existing methods of analysis - Discusses current scientific understanding of these events and outlines future challenges - Considers the ways in which space weather may affect daily life - Demonstrates deep connections between astrophysics, heliophysics, and space weather applications, including a discussion of extreme space weather events from the past - Examines national and space policy issues concerning space weather in Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States
In Nordic literature a remarkable discussion of the northern light appears in Kongespeilet (The King's Mirror) a thirteenth-century Norwegian chronicle. It is described in vivid detail as the following translated excerpts demonstrate: These northern lights have this peculiar nature, that the darker the night is, the brighter they seem, and they always appear at night but never by day, most frequently in the densest darkness and rarely by moonlight. In appearance they resemble a vast flame of fire viewed from a great distance. It also looks as if sharp points were shot from this flame up into the sky; these are of uneven height and in constant motion, now one, now another darting highest; and the light appears to blaze like a living flame. Three different theories for the origin of the northern light were suggested in this book. Numerous naturally occurring heavenly phenomena have been observed and enjoyed as long as the Earth has been inhabited, but hardly any of them has stirred man's imagination, curiosity and fear as much as the northern light. The northern light is certainly one of the most spectacular of nature's phenomena.
Observing the Sun is one of the most interesting and rewarding facets of astronomy to which amateurs can contribute. Few areas of science offer as many opportunities to contribute meaningful data. It is the one branch of astronomy that requires only modest equipment and can be pursued during the day. Peter Taylor is a keen and highly experienced observer of the Sun. In this book he explains in a clear and practical way everything that a telescope user needs to know in order to make solar observations. The author draws on his many years of personal experience as a contributor to the Solar Division of the American Association of Variable Star Observers and to the American Sunspot Program. The book deals with the following topics: historical background, choice of equipment for the safe conduct of solar observations, observations of sunspots, and reporting observations. New techniques, such as electronic recording and the operations of radio telescopes, are included. The level of presentation is understandable to anyone with basic astronomical knowledge and some experience in handling a small telescope.
This study looked at observational and theoretical studies of flare physics, at quests for flare precursors, and at mathematical models for combining masses of predictive information. We also looked at the worldwide effort to gather and share timely data and combine it with knowledge and experience to forecast solar flares and their effects. Topics include: Long-lived, large-scale magnetic and velocity fields; Magnetic-energy buildup in an active region; Flare initiation; Flare precursors -- Filament activation, Preflare brightening, Magnetic shear, and Emerging and cancelling magnetic flux; Quantitative prediction; Operational solar flare prediction; Forecast evaluation.
This book presents carefully revised versions of tutorial lectures given during a School on Artificial Neural Networks for the industrial world held at the University of Limburg in Maastricht, Belgium. The major ANN architectures are discussed to show their powerful possibilities for empirical data analysis, particularly in situations where other methods seem to fail. Theoretical insight is offered by examining the underlying mathematical principles in a detailed, yet clear and illuminating way. Practical experience is provided by discussing several real-world applications in such areas as control, optimization, pattern recognition, software engineering, robotics, operations research, and CAM.
Examines the emerging physical science of space weather and the impact the sun and solar storms have on Earth life.
Physics of Geomagnetic phenomena, Volume I covers the significant advances in geomagnetism and the penetrations into the generation of geomagnetic field phenomena. This volume is composed of three chapters. Chapter I deals briefly with the discovery and developments in geomagnetism, followed by discussions on some fundamental topics of the field, including the aurora and geomagnetic storms. This chapter also considers the instruments, geomagnetic stations, and the correlations between geomagnetic indices. Chapter II describes the magnetic properties of minerals and various processes of acquisition of remanent magnetization. This chapter also provides palaeomagnetic data for the direction and intensity of the geomagnetic field in ancient times. Chapter III explores geomagnetic variations caused by solar flares and eclipses. This book will prove useful to physicists, students in upper atmospheric and space topics, and scientists in allied fields with a background in geomagnetism.
Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather provides a thorough and accessible presentation of machine learning techniques that can be employed by space weather professionals. Additionally, it presents an overview of real-world applications in space science to the machine learning community, offering a bridge between the fields. As this volume demonstrates, real advances in space weather can be gained using nontraditional approaches that take into account nonlinear and complex dynamics, including information theory, nonlinear auto-regression models, neural networks and clustering algorithms. Offering practical techniques for translating the huge amount of information hidden in data into useful knowledge that allows for better prediction, this book is a unique and important resource for space physicists, space weather professionals and computer scientists in related fields. - Collects many representative non-traditional approaches to space weather into a single volume - Covers, in an accessible way, the mathematical background that is not often explained in detail for space scientists - Includes free software in the form of simple MATLAB® scripts that allow for replication of results in the book, also familiarizing readers with algorithms