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Growth in the first half of 2018 was softer than in 2017, especially in advanced economies. In contrast, growth remained robust in emerging market economies and broadly in line with expectations. After rising to 6.9 percent in 2017, growth in China continued to be strong into the first half of 2018 but has likely slowed since, given the latest high-frequency indicators, including weakening investment growth. In Japan, after exceeding potential for two years, growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2018 before rebounding sharply in the second quarter. In India, growth continues to recover steadily after the disruptions related to demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax in the last fiscal year.1 And in ASEAN-4 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand), growth generally lost momentum in the first half of 2018, except in Thailand.
After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.
Infrastructure is essential for development. This report presents a snapshot of the current condition of developing Asia's infrastructure---defined here as transport, power, telecommunications, and water supply and sanitation. It examines how much the region has been investing in infrastructure and what will likely be needed through 2030. Finally, it analyzes the financial and institutional challenges that will shape future infrastructure investment and development.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes mobilization of tax revenues in Nigeria. Low non-oil revenue mobilization is affecting the government’s objectives to expand growth-enhancing expenditure priorities, foster higher growth, and comply with its fiscal rule which limits the federal government deficit to no more than 3 percent of GDP. There is significant revenue potential from structural tax measures. A broad-based and comprehensive tax reform program is needed in the short and medium term to address these objectives and generate sustainable revenue growth by broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes, closing loopholes and leakage created by corporate tax holidays and the widespread use of other associated tax expenditures, as well as creating incentives for the subnational tiers of government to raise their own source revenues.
This publication explores how international trade is promoting economic empowerment through the increased participation of women and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. It highlights the roles of services and digital connectivity in facilitating diversification and inclusive economic transformation. The report examines recent trends in aid for trade in Asia and the Pacific and how it can do more to boost inclusive growth.
The United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global and regional economic outlook for 2019 and 2020. Produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the five UN regional commissions, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, with contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization.
National Energy Plans in the Asia-Pacific Region is a collection of papers presented at Workshop III of the Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group, held in Honolulu, Hawaii, at the East-West Center, from 25-28 February 1980. The collection presents a framework for energy policies in the Asia-Pacific Region; energy policies of the United States, oil-exporting countries, industrial oil-importing countries, and countries importing more than and less than 50% of their oil requirements; and the role of international institutions in energy research. International energy policy makers and researchers will find the book invaluable.
Asia is expected to grow by about 51⁄2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include those of further market corrections—possibly triggered by inflation surprises and/or faster-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies—a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.
Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than projected last April, respectively). A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
This publication provides updated statistics on a comprehensive set of economic, financial, social, and environmental measures as well as select indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report covers the 49 regional members of ADB. It discusses trends in development progress and the challenges to achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth across Asia and the Pacific. This 52nd edition discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the challenges of meeting development targets, which needed urgent attention even before the global health crisis began. To put into practice the "leave no one behind" principle of the SDGs, the availability of more detailed and informative data is crucial. With the pandemic intensifying society's reliance on digital platforms for remote working and learning, as well as for shopping and entertainment, the 2021 report features a special supplement, Capturing the Digital Economy: A Proposed Measurement Framework and Its Applications, which is rooted in input-output analysis and uses readily available national accounts data. The study provides a sound basis on which to assess the relative importance of the digital economy in national and global production processes.