Theressa V. Sou
Published: 2007
Total Pages:
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Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipatedfuture warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possiblechanges in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced withatmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observedsea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertimeice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations changelittle, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The icethickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050,but the region could support some commercial shipping.