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SHE’S GOD. HE’S A GAMBLER. IT’S A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN … OR HELL? Risk of Ruin is a love story unlike any you’ve ever read—dark, disturbing, irreverent, some might say sacrilegious—while protagonists Bart and Stacy may be the most compelling misfits to go on the lam since Bonnie and Clyde. The first work of fiction to be released by well-known gambling expert and author Arnold Snyder, Risk of Ruin is a provocative story of crime, passion, rebellion, and possible redemption that attempts to answer a question that has tormented gambling men since Adam placed that all-in bet on Eve: Is she worth the risk?
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cram‚r?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.
Explores two neglected mathematical tools essential for competing successfully in today's frenzied commodities markets: quantity, which shows the proper amounts a trader should trade for a given market and system, and intercorrelation of returns (diversification), which shows not only which markets and systems to trade, but how to diversify with respect to trading the right quantities for each market. By using these lesser known tools in conjunction with the more popular trade/system selection tools, readers will see mathematically how success in the markets can be achieved, and how ``success'' without using all three is most likely incidental. In addition, non-stationary distribution of profits and losses and drawdowns are incorporated into the discussions to expose traders to the highs and lows of commodities markets and how best to leverage their assets.
Money management may very well be the most important piece of the trading puzzle. In A Trader's Money Management System, expert Bennett McDowell provides time-tested techniques that can turn a losing trader into a winning one?and take the winning trader to an entirely new level. In revealing his personal approach to staying out of trouble in the financial markets and maximizing profits, he offers comprehensive insights into: The psychology of risk control as well as the finer aspects of setting stop-loss exits The value of managing trade size and consistent record keeping The process of putting together your own personal money management system Unlike other books that focus on the complex mathematical theories behind money management, this book presents its system in straightforward, easy-to-understand terms that will allow you to quickly see how these concepts work and immediately benefit from the value of effectively managing risk.
Illustrated with historical analysis, case studies, and accessible economic concepts, this book explains what financial crises are, how they are caused and what we can learn from them. It will appeal to university students as well as general readers who are curious to learn more about the recent subprime crisis and other financial crises.
The Universal Principles of Successful Trading clearly and unambiguously articulates trading principles that distinguish the winners from the losers. Though trading can be performed in different markets, across different timeframes, and with different instruments based upon different techniques, there is one common thread that ties all winning traders together: the universal principles of successful trading. All consistently profitable traders adhere to them regardless of the markets, timeframes, and techniques. In this ground-breaking book from top trader, Brent Penfold, the reader will: Learn how to develop a trading plan Learn how to identify and create an effective methodology Discover successful money management strategies Understand trader psychology And many more exciting trading and strategies secrets. Supporting the universal principles are rare interviews from a diverse group of successful traders. Some are the new young guns of trading and others are market legends who are trading just as actively today as they were over 50 years ago. They represent a diverse group of traders from the United Kingdom, America, Singapore, Hong Kong, Italy, and Australia. All of them have generously agreed to offer the reader one singularly powerful piece of advice to help them towards their trading goals. Each piece of advice emphasizes an essential element of the universal principles. This timely and exciting book from Brent Penfold has already garnered many accolades and looks set to become a modern-day classic.
Motivated by the many and long-standing contributions of H. Gerber and E. Shiu, this book gives a modern perspective on the problem of ruin for the classical Cramér–Lundberg model and the surplus of an insurance company. The book studies martingales and path decompositions, which are the main tools used in analysing the distribution of the time of ruin, the wealth prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. Recent developments in exotic ruin theory are also considered. In particular, by making dividend or tax payments out of the surplus process, the effect on ruin is explored. Gerber-Shiu Risk Theory can be used as lecture notes and is suitable for a graduate course. Each chapter corresponds to approximately two hours of lectures.
Distills complex theories for the benefit of the average trader with little or no background in finance or mathematics by offering a wide range of valuable, practical strategies for limiting risk, avoiding catastrophic losses and managing the futures portfolio to maximize profits. Numerous topics are explored including: why most traders lose at the futures game most of the time; why most mechanical trading systems are apt to fail; the probabilistic approach to trading; how to make stop-loss orders work for, rather than against you; the pros and cons of options versus futures trading; and how to limit risk through diversification.
Risk theory, which deals with stochastic models of an insurance business, is a classical application of probability theory. The fundamental problem in risk theory is to investigate the ruin possibility of the risk business. Traditionally the occurrence of the claims is described by a Poisson process and the cost of the claims by a sequence of random variables. This book is a treatise of risk theory with emphasis on models where the occurrence of the claims is described by more general point processes than the Poisson process, such as renewal processes, Cox processes and general stationary point processes. In the Cox case the possibility of risk fluctuation is explicitly taken into account. The presentation is based on modern probabilistic methods rather than on analytic methods. The theory is accompanied with discussions on practical evaluation of ruin probabilities and statistical estimation. Many numerical illustrations of the results are given.
Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks. The articles in the book were written with a broad audience in mind and should provide enjoyable reading for those with university level degrees and/or those who have studied for accreditation by various actuarial and financial societies.