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In this volume, a group of distinguished economists and political scientists analyze the political economy of European integration, evaluating recent developments in European monetary and fiscal policy. They consider the current situation, as well as the prospects for an Integrated Europe. The book is unique in combining perspectives from economics and political science and provides an in-depth analysis of the new European institutions. The book will be of great interest to observers, scholars, and students of European economic and political affairs, macroeconomic policy, institutional analysis, and comparative and international political economy. Published in conjunction with "Politics and Institutions in an Integrated Europe" by the same editors.
The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.
Why do currency crises happen? What conditions set the stage for such a crisis? How severe will it be? When will it happen? This book answers these questions, illustrating the points by examining the exchange rate realignments of the European Monetary System. It also shows how balancing the tension between domestic and international politics plays a vital part in a government's willingness to uphold its exchange rate commitments. Michele Chang pays particular attention to the role of domestic elections, since these may prevent governments from credibly committing to a fixed exchange rate and from responding quickly and coherently to market instability, thus encouraging speculation.
This book, edited by Paul R. Masson, Thomas Krueger, and Bart G. Turtelboom, contains the proceedings of the seminar held in Washington, D.C. on March 17-18, 1997, cosponsored by the IMF and Fondation Camille Gutt. Conference participants discussed implications of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on exchange and financial markets, and consequently on the activities of market participants and private and official institutions. The five main themes of the seminar were the characteristics of the euro and its potential role as an international currency; EMU and international policy coordination; EMU and the relationship between the IMF and its EMU members; lessons of European monetary integration for the international monetary system; and the transitioin to EMU.
This paper studies market expectations of a devaluation of the Irish pound from 1987 to 1993 and relates them to the evolution of Ireland’s competitiveness over the same period. Changes in expectations of the currency’s devaluation can be explained largely by developments outside Ireland, particularly by past and anticipated movements of sterling. The evolution of Ireland’s real exchange rate over the same period is also found to be strongly linked to sterling’s fluctuations, even after adjusting for sterling-insensitive trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom, and despite the significant progress toward trade diversification recorded by Ireland during the 1980s. The devaluation of the Irish pound in January 1993 is estimated to exceed investors’ realignment expectations at that time as well as the loss of Irish competitiveness since the beginning of the ERM crisis in the summer of 1992. This “excess devaluation” helps explain subsequent large capital inflows and the Irish pound’s smooth transition to the wide ERM band in August 1993.
This book presents ten studies which combine historical narrative with econometrics to analyze the role of credibility in four monetary regimes.
Monetary Stability through International Cooperation contains essays written by high ranking policy makers in the field of central banking and international finance, written in honour of André Szász, who has been Executive Director of De Nederlandsche Bank since 1973, responsible for international monetary relations. Colleagues from several other central banks, from finance ministries and from international institutions pay tribute to him by analysing the conditions fostering European as well as global monetary stability. The book provides an inside view of the thinking of monetary officials at the turn of 1993/1994, when the currency turmoil in the ERM of mid-1993 had subsided and views on its implications for exchange rate management and, more generally, for European integration were taking shape. Topics include exchange rate stabilisation, policy coordination and central bank independence. A second section, on the international monetary system, includes essays on the policy implications of present day dynamic financial markets as well as the role of the IMF. This book, written by `insiders for an insider', provides valuable insights to those who are interested in contemporary international monetary relations.
The international macroeconomics area has experienced substantial growth over the past decade. The goal of this volume is to present the most important developments in the international macroeconomics field in recent years. The literature in this area has evolved mainly in four directions that constitute the four parts of this book. In particular, Part I focuses on the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle, Part II presents papers that try to explain the behaviour of nominal and real exchange rates, Part III covers the financial crises, currency crises and contagion recent literature and, finally, the behaviour of exchange rates, inflation and output convergence in Central and Eastern European transition economies are considered in Part IV.
This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the causes and implications of the 1992-3 crisis of the exchange rate mechanism.