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This collaborative volume​ discusses the One Belt One Road, or the New Silk Road, initiative of Chinese President Xi Jinping from the perspectives of the Belt and Road countries. This initiative has been viewed as a re-globalization drive by China in the backdrop of financial crisis of the West and the latter’s increasingly protectionist tendencies of late. Rather than ‘rebalancing’ towards a certain region, this is supposed to be China’s ‘global rebalancing’ aimed at inclusiveness and a win-win partnership. The initiative has raised hopes as well as suspicions about China's goals and intentions; that is, whether this is in sync with China’s foreign policy goals, such as multipolarity, no hegemonic aspirations, and common security, or if this is an antidote to the U.S. foreign policy goals in the region, and China’s ambition to realizing its long-term vision for Asian regional and global order. In this volume, a galaxy of eminent academics from India, China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Germany and Southeast Asia have critically analysed every aspect of this mammoth project, including the six major economic corridors identified by China for policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, monetary circulation, and people to people exchanges. The authors have interpreted China’s peripheral, regional as well as global diplomacy both over land and sea. This topical volume is of interest to scholars and students of Asian studies, China studies, Asian history, development studies, international relations and international trade.
How trade imbalances spurred on the global financial crisis and why we aren't out of trouble yet China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations that will have long-lasting effects. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean that rebalancing is inevitable. Beijing has no choice but to take significant steps to restructure its economy. The only question is how to proceed. Michael Pettis debunks the lingering bullish expectations for China's economic rise and details Beijing's options. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will come with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.
‘Re-balancing China’ addresses three key sets of issues in China’s political economy. Part One provides an analysis of the profound effect of the global financial crisis upon China’s economy, as well as the positive impact of the massive rescue package that was implemented in response to the crisis. Part Two focuses on the challenge of globalization for China’s industrial policy. After more than two decades of industrial policy, China still has a negligible number of large firms that are competitive in global markets. China’s experience presents a fundamental challenge to traditional concepts of industrial policy and development. Part Three examines China’s international relations – in particular, its relationship with the US and the interactions between the two countries in the East and South China Seas.
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
China is transitioning to a greener, more inclusive, more consumer and service based, and less credit-driven economy. This paper defines a framework for assessing rebalancing, reviews progress, and discusses medium-term prospects. External rebalancing has advanced well, while progress on internal rebalancing has been mixed, with substantial progress on the supply side, moderate progress on the demand side, and limited progress on the credit side. Rebalancing on income equality and environment has also been mixed, with the energy intensity of growth falling and labor’s share of income rising, but income inequality and local air pollution remaining very high. Going forward, the high national saving is expected to fall owing to demographic change and a stronger social safety net, while the investment ratio is expected to fall similarly, with increasing competition and profit normalization as growth slows. The service sector will continue to gain importance, helping reduce the carbon intensity of output and increase labor’s share of national income and household consumption. Reducing the credit intensity of growth is likely to progress slowly unless decisive corporate restructuring and SOE reforms are implemented.
Banking on Growth Models contends that China's rapid economic rise from the late 1970s to today has been built on and shaped by a highly politicized and inefficient bank-centric financial system. Stephen Bell and Hui Feng argue that if the Chinese growth model drives how key economic sectors interact, no amount of incremental reform can have much impact on the financial system—meaningful reform can stem only from a revised growth model. For a time after the global financial crisis, it appeared that the expansion of a more market-oriented shadow banking system might help sustain China's economic growth. Since around 2015, however, Xi Jinping's regime has reversed this trajectory and placed China's financial system under heavy state control, resulting in slowed economic development and skyrocketing national debt. China's market transition and economic rebalancing are now in doubt, as is the fate of the nation's economy. By pinpointing finance as a vital element of the growth model, Bell and Feng provide a convincing assessment of financial risks and the prospects for economic rebalancing in China. Banking on Growth Models demystifies the world of Chinese banking and finance as it investigates an ever-rising national debt, a declining rate of economic growth, and the possibility of dire and drastic reform by the Asian superpower's government.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
Where do we see China’s changes? What are the guiding principles behind these changes? Are China’s diplomatic policies and international strategies more reflective of its own national conditions or international trends? How will China balance its ideology with national interests? How does China see the current international order and its new position within the existing order? Besides answering these basic questions, this volume considers two other important issues: First, the future of China after its era of continuous high-speed growth; and second, (the all-important question in China’s foreign affairs) the future of Sino-US relations? 2013 was China’s first year under new leadership, and there is a consensus amongst researchers of China’s international affairs that the diplomatic practices China undertook to a great extent demonstrated new characteristics, perspectives, and requirements of the new leadership.