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This study analyzes the determinants of rating changes and the variables' marginal effects on rating change probabilities. Based on the results, it presents transition matrices by computing transition probabilities. Furthermore, this study analyzes subsamples of the data set, conditional on the business cycle and the economic strength of a country, by using interaction effects. The Author of this study thereby verifies whether or how the transition matrices change by including interaction effects. He applies a latent variable approach, using an ordered probit model, to calculate the effects of different variables on the probabilities of rating changes.
In a world of open markets and global trade, development thinking seeks stability and prosperity for the world's poor by expanding access to financial products. This book challenges the development sector's embrace of 'financial inclusion' by exploring how the new risks and instabilities that accompany the pivot towards the global economy undermining the functioning of money itself. Cast against fundamental change in the monetary environment accompanying the globalisation of markets, the book examines the rapid liberalisation of money and markets in Pakistan. It argues that liberalisation has generated substantive problems not only for the central bank as guardian of national currency, but for ordinary households. By pinpointing how globalisation generates new risks for households in the everyday economy, the book reveals jarring contradictions between free markets and financial inclusion whilst challenging money theory by positing substantive and empirically-grounded monetary contestation that demonstrates a burden of risk imposed on ordinary people, that is only exacerbated by financial inclusion.
Offering a fresh look at the commonly accepted view of what constitutes good governance, Donald Nordberg explores the contexts of board decisions and draws upon his academic research and years of business and financial journalism in Europe, North America and Asia to provide a distinctive and pertinent contribution to the literature on corporate governance. The book: - Features 21 detailed case studies, drawn from international examples, to prompt discussion and analysis - Provides topical, up-to-date examples and evidence - Gives attention to the important question "What next for Corporate Governance?" Supporting features include: Case Study questions; "Agenda Point" boxes to provide further analysis and consideration on topical issues; Further readings; Companion Website, featuring online resources.
Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
Recent crises in emerging markets have been heavily driven by balance-sheet or net-worth effects. Episodes in countries as far-flung as Indonesia and Argentina have shown that exchange rate adjustments that would normally help to restore balance can be destabilizing, even catastrophic, for countries whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies. Many economists instinctually assume that developing countries allow their foreign debts to be denominated in dollars, yen, or euros because they simply don't know better. Presenting evidence that even emerging markets with strong policies and institutions experience this problem, Other People's Money recognizes that the situation must be attributed to more than ignorance. Instead, the contributors suggest that the problem is linked to the operation of international financial markets, which prevent countries from borrowing in their own currencies. A comprehensive analysis of the sources of this problem and its consequences, Other People's Money takes the study one step further, proposing a solution that would involve having the World Bank and regional development banks themselves borrow and lend in emerging market currencies.
The estimation and the validation of the Basel II risk parameters PD (default probability), LGD (loss given fault), and EAD (exposure at default) is an important problem in banking practice. These parameters are used on the one hand as inputs to credit portfolio models and in loan pricing frameworks, on the other to compute regulatory capital according to the new Basel rules. This book covers the state-of-the-art in designing and validating rating systems and default probability estimations. Furthermore, it presents techniques to estimate LGD and EAD and includes a chapter on stress testing of the Basel II risk parameters. The second edition is extended by three chapters explaining how the Basel II risk parameters can be used for building a framework for risk-adjusted pricing and risk management of loans.
Credit risk plays a crucial role in most financial transactions in one form or another and therefore contributes to various different layers of economic activity. Three key elements in the analysis of credit risk can be distinguished, namely: (1) the lender-borrower relationship, which is at the core of the entire discussion on credit risk; (2) the pricing of credit risk in financial markets; and (3) the relevance of financial stability and regulation related to the occurrence of credit risk. This book captures these areas in a comprehensive way by highlighting some of the current issues and related questions.