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Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria’s economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria’s human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.
The war in Syria, now in its eighth year, continues to take its toll on the Syrian people. More than half of the population of Syria remains displaced; 5.6 million persons are registered as refugees outside of the country and another 6.2 million are displaced within Syria's borders. The internally displaced persons include 2 million school-age children; of these, less than half attend school. Another 739,000 Syrian children are out of school in the five neighborhood countries that host Syria's refugees. The loss of human capital is staggering, and it will create permanent hardships for generations of Syrians going forward. Despite the tragic prospects for renewed fighting in certain parts of the country, an overall reduction in armed conflict is possible going forward. However, international experience shows that the absence of fighting is rarely a singular trigger for the return of displaced people. Numerous other factors—including improved security and socioeconomic conditions in origin states, access to property and assets, the availability of key services, and restitution in home areas—play important roles in shaping the scale and composition of the returns. Overall, refugees have their own calculus of return that considers all of these factors and assesses available options. The Mobility of Displaced Syrians: An Economic and Social Analysis sheds light on the 'mobility calculus' of Syrian refugees. While dismissing any policies that imply wrongful practices involving forced repatriation, the study analyzes factors that may be considered by refugees in their own decisions to relocate. It provides a conceptual framework, supported by data and analysis, to facilitate an impartial conversation about refugees and their mobility choices. It also explores the diversified policy toolkit that the international community has available—and the most effective ways in which the toolkit can be adapted—to maximize the well-being of refugees, host countries, and the people in Syria.
One of the most striking recent developments in the modern Middle East has been the transformation of Syria under Hafez al-Assad from a weak, vulnerable and internally divided state to a leading regional power. While this is increasingly acknowledged by observers of the Middle Eastern scene , the scholarly discussion of the origins, the scope, the durability and the implications of this change is only beginning to take place. Syria Under Assad addresses itself to this discussion. Based on a carefully selected collection of original articles, this volume focuses on the elements of Syria’s power, on Syria’s relations with each of its neighbours as well as on Syria’s relations with the superpowers. In the final analysis, conclude the editors, Syrian policies appear paradoxical. Its conduct ever since the advent of Hafez al-Assad exhibits subtle and hard-nosed pragmatism. Yet, in order to consolidate the domestic legitimacy of the Alawi Ba’athist regime, Syria has been impelled to articulate its foreign policy goals in the far-flung rhetoric of the Ba’athist ideology. As a result Syria is widely perceived of as a menace and, treated as such, it often responds in kind.
In 2011, massive protest movements that appeared to come out of nowhere caught the Arab world’s autocrats by surprise and brought down powerful leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Thousands of Syrians took to the streets in March 2011 calling for the “fall of the regime,” the popular slogan of Arab uprisings, but found themselves confronting a determined foe willing to slaughter thousands of citizens and to destroy entire city neighborhoods in order to hold onto power. By the middle of 2013, Syria was in the midst of a nightmarish civil war marked by more than 80,000 deaths, sectarian massacres, the flight of one-fourth the country’s population from their homes, the disintegration of government institutions in much of the country, and a rising humanitarian crisis as food, medicine, and electricity grew short. Nobody in Syria or the outside world appears to be in a position to stop what looked like a fight to the bitter end, at whatever cost to the country. This third edition of the Historical Dictionary of Syria covers the recent events in Syria as well as the history that led up to these events. This is done through a chronology, an introductory essay, and an extensive bibliography. The cross-referenced dictionary section has over 500 entries on significant persons, places and events, political parties and institutions, literature, music and the arts. This book is an excellent resource for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about Syria.