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The economic debate underlines the reasons why discount rates of infrastructure projects should be similar, regardless the public or private source of financing, during the forecast period when flows are risky but predictable. In contrast, we show that the incompleteness of contracts between governments and private firms beyond the forecast period (i.e., when flows of net social benefits are state-contingent) entails expected terminal values that are systematically larger under government rather than private financing. This effect provides a new rationale for applying a lower discount rate in the assessment of projects under public financing as compared to private financing.
The choice of infrastructure delivery through public versus private provision is driven by investment and operational efficiency, and cost of capital differentials. While the first two factors are measurable -- albeit with mixed results -- the appropriate discount rate instigates methodological discussions. Efficient market hypothesis supporters propose a single discount rate, independently of the source of financing; welfare economists advocate for a lower discount rate for public-sector cash flows. I revisit this discussion with attention to state-contingent terminal value -- including regulatory discretion, expropriation, risk transfer schemes, limited liability, multilevel administrations, and catastrophic events -- and provide an empirical test of lower price volatility for government-sponsored enterprises. Finally, I propose an integrated approach with a dual discount rate treat: a common discount rate for predictable cash flows and divorced discount rates for terminal cash flows.
Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been a controversial approach to procuring public infrastructure services. Against a background of recent trenchant criticism of PPPs, Mervyn K. Lewis, a leading scholar in the area, re-examines their utility. He questions what PPPs can and cannot do, why governments choose this route and whether PPPs can ever be good value for money.
This report answers the question: “What guidelines can be used to identify the types of agricultural investments that have the highest economic return, where “agriculture” is broadly defined to include primary production, handling, storage, transportation, distribution, processing, and retailing?” Using the literature and MCC’s ERR analyses, we explain how agricultural investments fit in a wider development context, identify information useful to MCC’s decision making that is not provided by the ERR analyses, and suggest IFPRI tools for exploratory and ex-ante evaluative analysis that MCC can use in their decision-making process.
Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.
There is widespread acceptance of the importance of infrastructure, but less agreement about how it should be funded and procured. While most public infrastructure is still provided in-house or by traditional procurement methods – with well-researched strengths and weaknesses – the development of service concession arrangements has seen a greater emphasis on lifecycle costing, risk assessment and asset design as featured in a variety of public private partnership (PPP) delivery models. This book examines the various procurement approaches, and provides a framework for comparing their advantages and disadvantages. Drawing on international experience, it considers some of the best and worst examples of PPPs, and infrastructure projects generally, along with the lessons for improving infrastructure procurement processes.
The 2007–09 international financial crisis underscored the importance of reliable and timely statistics on the general government and public sectors. Government finance statistics are a basis for fiscal analysis and they play a vital role in developing and monitoring sound fiscal programs and in conducting surveillance of economic policies. The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 represents a major step forward in clarifying the standards for compiling and presenting fiscal statistics and strengthens the worldwide effort to improve public sector reporting and transparency.
Through the introduction of a new lens through which to view infrastructure finance policy, this book analyses the role of Public Private Partnerships within the context of long-term capital investment and improvement planning, and as a critical aspect of effective long-term capital infrastructure finance policy.
This is a collection of theoretical papers, including contributions by Partha Dasgupta and three Nobel prize-winning economists: Kenneth Arrow, Amartya Sen, and Joseph Stiglitz. Originally published in 1982.
This Manual, which updates the first edition published in 1986, is a major advance in the standards for compilation and presentation of fiscal statistics. It is intended as a reference volume for compilers of government finance statistics, fiscal analysts, and other users of fiscal data. The Manual introduces accrual accounting, balance sheets, and complete coverage of government economic and financial activities. It covers concepts, definitions, classifications, and accounting rules, and provides a comprehensive framework for analysis, planning, and policy determination. To the extent possible, the Manual has been harmonized with the System of National Accounts 1993.