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This report brings into the public domain information on the process whereby the European Commission currently derives its agricultural outlook, consisting of baseline projections and market-related analysis of EU agricultural commodities (cereals, oilseeds, biofuels, sugar, meat, and milk and dairy products). The baseline is conditional upon on specific assumptions about agricultural and trade policies and the macroeconomic environment. The process relies heavily on the use of three complementary agro-economic simulation models, which are used sequentially to produce harmonised projections up to 2020 at different levels spatial disaggregation globally and within the EU. However, the modelling approach is also greatly enriched by expert knowledge from a wide range of specialisms and organisations (policy makers, modellers and market experts from the EU, third countries, international organisations and stakeholders). Opportunities to develop the baseline methodology are also discussed.
This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets and agricultural income to 2030. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, including the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The analysis relies on information available at the end of September 2019 for agricultural production and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
This outlook covers the period from 2020 to 2030 and reflects on current agricultural and trade policies. Projections are based on the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook updated with the most recent global macroeconomic and market data. According to macroeconomic assumptions, the global economy will rebound in 2021-2022 and level off at an annual average growth of 3% by 2030. The EU economy should recover to its pre-COVID-19 level by 2023. The oil price, after bottoming out at USD 41/bbl in 2020, is due to reach USD 83/bbl in 2030. A moderate appreciation of the euro is expected in the medium term, reaching USD 1.16/EUR by 2030. These assumptions are based on average economic trends, so they presume market developments to be relatively smooth. However, in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Recent free trade agreements (FTAs) are included if they have already been implemented (with Ukraine, Japan, Vietnam and Canada), while the ones only concluded are not (with Mercosur and the updated FTA with Mexico). Regarding the future relationship between the EU-27 and the UK, there is a purely technical assumption that duty-free/quota-free trading relations will continue. As macroeconomic projections and crop yield expectations are by nature surrounded by uncertainty, a systemic uncertainty analysis has been carried out, which enables us to illustrate possible developments caused by the uncertain conditions in the economy and agricultural markets. This report presents possible price ranges around the expected baseline. In addition, to address the implications of the uncertainties surrounding the post-pandemic recovery, specific scenarios look at alternative COVID-19 recovery pathways. Finally, a scenario about the use of food losses and food waste for insect farming to produce protein meal and oil for aquaculture is analysed and presented in the report.
The workshop 'Medium-term Outlook for the EU Agricultural Commodity markets' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission's report 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary medium term projections of the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets and discussing in-depth the EU prospects in a global context. This year the workshop was held on 19-20 October in Brussels. The workshop was jointly organised by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). Participants included policy makers, modelling and market experts from various countries, as well as stakeholders of the agri-food industry. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed: biofuels, cereals and oilseeds, sweeteners, milk and dairy, meats and wine. Additionally this year international challenges, environment and climate change were also discussed.
Since the financial and food price crises of 2007, market instability has been a topic of major concern to agricultural economists and policy professionals. This volume provides an overview of the key issues surrounding food prices volatility, focusing primarily on drivers, long-term implications of volatility and its impacts on food chains and consumers. The book explores which factors and drivers are volatility-increasing and which others are price level-increasing, and whether these two distinctive effects can be identified and measured. It considers the extent to which increasing instability affects agents in the value chain, as well as the actual impacts on the most vulnerable households in the EU and in selected developing countries. It also analyses which policies are more effective to avert and mitigate the effects of instability. Developed from the work of the European-based ULYSSES project, the book synthesises the most recent literature on the topic and presents the views of practitioners, businesses, NGOs and farmers' organizations. It draws policy responses and recommendations for policy makers at both European and on international levels.
This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets, income and environment to 2032. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, in addition to the assumptions on the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The markets' analyses rely on information available at the end of September 2022 for agricultural markets and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.