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China's agricultural growth in the past two decades has been called a miracle. An analysis of the sources of this miraculous growth is the focus of the present volume. In addition, this book also investigates the impact of economic reforms on agriculture, the potential of grain production in China, and regional disparities in agricultural production and growth performance. This book adds to the literature and contributes to the current debates on food security and rural development.
This study by Shenggen Fan makes three important and original contributions. It is the first study to report regional patterns of productivity growth in Chinese agriculture. There have been dramatic differences in output and productivity growth among Chinese regions. The second contribution is to measure the separate effects of technical change and institutional reform on productivity growth. Much of the rapid growth in agricultural production and in productivity since the late 1970s has been a consequence of an important series of institutional reforms. The third contribution is the first test of the induced innovation hypothesis against experience in a centrally planned economy. Regional patterns of productivity growth are consistent with the hypothesis that the path of technical change has been responsive to regional differences in resource endowments.
Regional disparities have existed in China, a vast and heterogeneous country with sharply diversified physical, economic, and social conditions, for hundreds, indeed, thousands of years. These disparities, usually represented by the so-called East-West gaps, have been considerably widened since China's "Reform and Opening up" began to take root in the late 1970s. This phenomenon of increasing regional disparities has brought about many social and economic problems. Appropriate attention should be taken by government to curb and gradually reduce the uneven spatial development, which is the result of the interactions of many factors. Spatial variations of agriculture are regarded as both the cardinal cause and one of the consequential effects of the general regional disparities. Understanding such variations will positively contribute to the formulation of solutions to the problem of regional disparities. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the differential performance of agricultural production of both grain and red meat during the period between 1980 and 1990. It focuses on change occurring at both the six macro-regions' level and the provincial level by manipulating the classical shift-and-surface approach. The results obtained indicate that although there was no significant change in the basic spatial patterns present in agriculture, each individual region underwent detailed differences in its performance. These variations resulted from the combination of each area's "regional factors" and its agricultural structure. A good appreciation of these spatial variations in agriculture is a prerequisite for a sound regional policy of agricultural development which should balance the exploitation of regional comparative advantage and the implementation of regional foodgrain self-sufficiency.
This dissertation studies the production efficiency and productivity of agriculture in Shanxi province after Chinese economic reforms. The main question about the economic aspects of agriculture we want to address is the performance of Chinese agriculture since 1980. We use a newly constructed county-level input and output quantity data set to obtain technical efficiency and measure the Malmquist productivity index and its components. We first use the nonparametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to obtain Pareto-Koopmans measures of technical efficiency of individual counties in Shanxi province during year 1981-2010 in a multi-output, multi-input production framework. We disaggregate overall efficiency into two components representing output and input efficiencies and evaluate the contribution of individual outputs and inputs to the measured level of overall efficiency. We also examine the utilization of modern agricultural inputs compared to the traditional inputs. Next, We investigate the temporal and spatial nature of productivity growth of Chinese agriculture in Shanxi province. The results indicate that growth in the Malmquist productivity index over the 1983–2010 periods was 1.2% annually for the entire province. Decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index shows that technical change contributed to the growth in productivity by 0.8% per year, while efficiency change increased productivity by 0.4% per year. The results also show that the Malmquist index of productivity changes is fast-, moderate- and slow-growing in different groups. The trend of the growth of productivity is also explained in this dissertation. Finally, across county variation in the DEA measure of efficiency and its components is investigated. We identify a number of important factors and discuss their relevance as determinants of efficiency in agricultural production in Shanxi province. We also evaluate the impact of three important policy changes (named, China’s admission to WTO (2001), abolition of agricultural tax (2006), and subsidization of agricultural machinery (2007)) on agricultural efficiency at both national and county level. An analysis of the measured efficiency level can help to identify factors that enhance or hinder efficient resource utilization. This becomes helpful for public policy for improving efficiency.
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
As regional inequality looms large in the policy debate in China, this volume brings together a selection of papers from authors whose work has had real impact on policy, so that researchers and policy makers can have access to them in one place.
China's rise as an economic powerhouse raises a number of questions that are the subject of lively debate. How did the country do it? How applicable are the lessons of China's economic reform of the past thirty years to the challenges it faces in the next three decades? What does the detailed pattern of China's success and challenges look like at the sub-sectoral and sub-national levels, and what does this mean for future policy? How will China's role as a global economic player evolve? The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China presents an original collection of perspectives on the Chinese economy's past, present, and future: 99 entries written by the leading China analysts of our time. The topics covered include: the China model, future prospects for China , China and the global economy, trade and the Chinese economy, macroeconomics and finance, urbanisation, industry and markets, agriculture and rural development, land, infrastructure, and environment, population and labour, dimensions of wellbeing and inequality, health and education, gender equity, regional divergence in China, and a selection of perspectives on some of China's provinces. The Editors are four global leaders in Chinese economic analysis and policy who between them have held or hold the following positions: Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute; Co-Editor, China Economic Review; President Chinese Economists Society; Assistant Director of Research at the IMF; Principal Adviser to the Chief Economist of the World Bank; and Professors of Economics at Ivy League Universities.
The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.