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The life of engine components is determined by a combination of the material properties and the applied stresses and temperatures. As a consequence of variability in these parameters, the component life is not fixed (deterministic) but stochastic (random) and may be characterized by a probability density function (PDF). In order to reduce the cost of ownership of ADF aircraft these PDFs need to be determined as accurately as possible. Probabilistic techniques offer significant potential for accurate and realistic estimates of component lives by quantifying stochastic elements of an analysis rather than introducing excessive conservatism to allow for them. This report examines the feasibility of using a probabilistic approach for modelling the component temperatures in an engine using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics).
The life of engine components is determined by a combination of the material properties and the applied stresses and temperatures. As a consequence of variability in these parameters, the component life is not fixed (deterministic) but stochastic (random) and may be characterised by a probability density function (PDF). In order to reduce the cost of ownership of ADF aircraft these PDFs need to be determined as accurately as possible. Probabilistic techniques offer significant potential for accurate and realistic estimates of component lives by quantifying stochastic elements of an analysis rather than introducing excessive conservatism to allow for them. This report examines the feasibility of using a probabilistic approach for modelling the component temperatures in an engine using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics).
This book introduces design techniques developed to increase the safety of aircraft engines, and demonstrates how the application of stochastic methods can overcome problems in the accurate prediction of engine lift caused by manufacturing error. This in turn addresses the issue of achieving required safety margins when hampered by limits in current design and manufacturing methods. The authors show that avoiding the potential catastrophe generated by the failure of an aircraft engine relies on the prediction of the correct behaviour of microscopic imperfections. This book shows how to quantify the possibility of such failure, and that it is possible to design components that are inherently less risky and more reliable. This new, updated and significantly expanded edition gives an introduction to engine reliability and safety to contextualise this important issue, evaluates newly-proposed methods for uncertainty quantification as applied to jet engines. Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Fluid Dynamics and Aircraft Engines will be of use to gas turbine manufacturers and designers as well as CFD practitioners, specialists and researchers. Graduate and final year undergraduate students in aerospace or mathematical engineering may also find it of interest.
This paper reviews uncertainty analysis methods and their application to fundamental problems in fluid dynamics. Probabilistic (Monte-Carlo, Moment methods, Polynomial Chaos) and non-probabilistic methods (Interval Analysis Propagation of error using sensitivity derivatives) are described and implemented. Results are presented for a model convection equation with a source term, a model non-linear convection-diffusion equation; supersonic flow over wedges, expansion corners, and an airfoil; and two-dimensional laminar boundary layer flow.
Fluid flows are characterized by uncertain inputs such as random initial data, material and flux coefficients, and boundary conditions. The current volume addresses the pertinent issue of efficiently computing the flow uncertainty, given this initial randomness. It collects seven original review articles that cover improved versions of the Monte Carlo method (the so-called multi-level Monte Carlo method (MLMC)), moment-based stochastic Galerkin methods and modified versions of the stochastic collocation methods that use adaptive stencil selection of the ENO-WENO type in both physical and stochastic space. The methods are also complemented by concrete applications such as flows around aerofoils and rockets, problems of aeroelasticity (fluid-structure interactions), and shallow water flows for propagating water waves. The wealth of numerical examples provide evidence on the suitability of each proposed method as well as comparisons of different approaches.
As computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is applied to ever more demanding fluid flow problems, the ability to compute numerical fluid flow solutions to a user specified tolerance as well as the ability to quantify the accuracy of an existing numerical solution are seen as essential ingredients in robust numerical simulation. Although the task of accurate error estimation for the nonlinear equations of CFD seems a daunting problem, considerable effort has centered on this challenge in recent years with notable progress being made by the use of advanced error estimation techniques and adaptive discretization methods. To address this important topic, a special course wasjointly organized by the NATO Research and Technology Office (RTO), the von Karman Insti tute for Fluid Dynamics, and the NASA Ames Research Center. The NATO RTO sponsored course entitled "Error Estimation and Solution Adaptive Discretization in CFD" was held September 10-14, 2002 at the NASA Ames Research Center and October 15-19, 2002 at the von Karman Institute in Belgium. During the special course, a series of comprehensive lectures by leading experts discussed recent advances and technical progress in the area of numerical error estimation and adaptive discretization methods with spe cific emphasis on computational fluid dynamics. The lecture notes provided in this volume are derived from the special course material. The volume con sists of 6 articles prepared by the special course lecturers.
During the last decade, research in Uncertainty Quantification (UC) has received a tremendous boost, in fluid engineering and coupled structural-fluids systems. New algorithms and adaptive variants have also emerged.This timely compendium overviews in detail the current state of the art of the field, including advances in structural engineering, along with the recent focus on fluids and coupled systems. Such a strong compilation of these vibrant research areas will certainly be an inspirational reference material for the scientific community.
This volume is the proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Fluid Mechanics (ICFM-V), the primary forum for the presentation of technological advances and research results in the fields of theoretical, experimental, and computational Fluid Mechanics. Topics include: flow instability and turbulence, aerodynamics and gas dynamics, industrial and environmental fluid mechanics, biofluid mechanics, geophysical fluid mechanics, plasma and magneto-hydrodynamics, and others.
This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.