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'This expert analysis provides an important contribution to understanding the technicalities of energy technology cost dynamics. Given the urgent need for delivery of low-cost renewable energy technologies in particular, it is vital to understand how to accelerate this process of technological learning.' - Miguel Mendonca, World Future Council, Germany
Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.
For undergraduate or graduate courses that include planning, conducting, and evaluating research. A do-it-yourself, understand-it-yourself manual designed to help students understand the fundamental structure of research and the methodical process that leads to valid, reliable results. Written in uncommonly engaging and elegant prose, this text guides the reader, step-by-step, from the selection of a problem, through the process of conducting authentic research, to the preparation of a completed report, with practical suggestions based on a solid theoretical framework and sound pedagogy. Suitable as the core text in any introductory research course or even for self-instruction, this text will show students two things: 1) that quality research demands planning and design; and, 2) how their own research projects can be executed effectively and professionally.
Business and industry leaders are eager to find ways to spark the creative instinct in their work forces. The creation, implementation, and sustainability of new ideas is the lifeblood ensuring the growth and viability of any organization. Without continuing innovation, competitive advantage and global market share are endangered. Once-thriving organizations can find themselves unprepared for the future. This newly translated work examines the multi-layered environment of innovation by melding the thoughts of business management pundits like Peter Senge with the views of artist, politicians, and other non-traditional thinkers like Tao Ho, Peter Greenaway, and Wolfgang Rihm. These thought leaders share their insights and help us to understand the process of creativity and construction and the methods to move organizations forward in an ever-changing climate.
The fact that market experience improves performance and reduces prices is well known and widely exploited in technology-intensive industries, but sparsely used in analysis for energy technology policy. Knowledge of the "experience effect" can help in the design of efficient programmes for deploying of environment-friendly technologies. The effect must be taken into account when estimating the future costs of achieving targets, including targets for carbon dioxide reduction. This book discusses issues raised by the "experience effect", such as price-cost cycles, competition for learning opportunities in the market, risk of "technology lockout" and the effects of research, development and deployment policies on technology learning. Case studies illustrate how experience curves can be used to set policy targets and to design policy measures that will encourage both investment in and use of environment-friendly energy technologies. Low-cost paths to stabilising CO2 emissions are explored.
The winners of the Nobel Prize show how economics, when done right, can help us solve the thorniest social and political problems of our day. Figuring out how to deal with today's critical economic problems is perhaps the great challenge of our time. Much greater than space travel or perhaps even the next revolutionary medical breakthrough, what is at stake is the whole idea of the good life as we have known it. Immigration and inequality, globalization and technological disruption, slowing growth and accelerating climate change--these are sources of great anxiety across the world, from New Delhi and Dakar to Paris and Washington, DC. The resources to address these challenges are there--what we lack are ideas that will help us jump the wall of disagreement and distrust that divides us. If we succeed, history will remember our era with gratitude; if we fail, the potential losses are incalculable. In this revolutionary book, renowned MIT economists Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo take on this challenge, building on cutting-edge research in economics explained with lucidity and grace. Original, provocative, and urgent, Good Economics for Hard Times makes a persuasive case for an intelligent interventionism and a society built on compassion and respect. It is an extraordinary achievement, one that shines a light to help us appreciate and understand our precariously balanced world.
7 Ways to reinvent your favorite ingredients with more than 120 new, exciting and tasty recipes Naked Chef television personality Jamie Oliver has looked at the top ingredients we buy week in, week out. We’re talking about those meal staples we pick up without thinking – chicken breasts, salmon fillets, ground beef, eggs, potatoes, broccoli, mushrooms, to name but a few. We’re all busy, but that shouldn’t stop us from having a tasty, nutritious meal after a long day at work or looking after the kids. So, rather than trying to change what we buy, Jamie wants to give everyone new inspiration for their favorite supermarket ingredients. Jamie will share 7 achievable, exciting and tasty ways to cook 18 of our favorite ingredients, and each recipe will include no more than 8 ingredients. Across the book, at least 70% of the recipes will be everyday options from both an ease and nutritional point of view, meaning you’re covered for every day of the week. With everything from fakeaways and traybakes to family and freezer favorites, you’ll find bags of inspiration to help you mix things up in the kitchen. Step up, 7 Ways, the most reader-focused cookbook Jamie has ever written.